Annual tradition returns: Spirit editor predicts the Oscars

Hello, dear readers! The time, once again has come — my annual ritual of public humiliation as I attempt to correctly predict the Oscars and most likely end up looking like I don’t know what a movie is and may even be hostile toward the concept. Moving images,

sound? Are you mad? I kid, mostly. I’ve struggled of late, but last year went reasonably well for my picks. It’s been pointed out to me that I’m failing to put my money where my mouth is by not publishing my annual score, so I made sure to keep count last year: 15 right to eight wrong. Not the best I’ve ever done, but pretty respectable (my main mistake was underestimating

That is almost certainly not going to be the case this year. I’ve been a faithful Oscar follower since around 2009, and in all that time, I cannot remember a year where the field felt this open. I wrung my hands over a lot of these categories.

As far as I’m concerned, that’s good news because it’s a function of 2022 having been a fantastic year for movies — and this being one of my favorite slates of Oscar nominees of all time. I don’t agree with all of the picks here, but what I like about this roster is how varied it is. You’ve got two giant blockbusters, a wordof-mouth hit kung fu comedy, an extravagant music movie, one foreign film (doubling as a big war epic) and a smattering of smaller dramas with distinctive directorial vision. This year, it actually feels like the academy explored the breadth of the movies that get made and came back with what it liked most. Regardless of who you are, you should be able to find something here that you’ll like. That’s really cool to see even if more than a handful of these movies would not make my own list.

That makes me forgiving enough to skip the “should win” section I usually attach to all of the categories. It would be redundant anyway because RRR is my answer in every category, including the ones for which it was not eligible. Oh, it’s three hours long, you say? Time is relative. Get it a nomination for short film. Seriously, watch RRR this instant.

Anyway, time for the predictions. This year, I’ve seen all of the nominees except for: in Documentary Short Film, How Do You Measure a Year?;

in Live Action Short Film, An Irish Goodbye and The Red Suitcase; and in The International Quiet Girl). Feature,

Feel free to follow along at home Sunday evening and laugh at my Best misfortune! Picture:

All Quiet on the Western Front; Avatar: The Way of Water; Elvis; Everything Everywhere All at Once; The Banshees of Inisherin; The Fabelmans; Top Gun: Maverick; Triangle of Sadness; Tár; Women Winner: TalkingEverything Everywhere All at Once Best Austin Actor Butler, in a Leading Elvis; Role: Bill Nighy, Living; Brendan Fraser, The Whale; Colin Farrell, The Paul Banshees Mescal, of Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis Inisherin; in

Aftersun a Best Actress Ana de Leading Role: Armas, Blonde; Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie; Cate Blanchett, Tár; Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans;

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once Winner: Michelle Yeoh,

Everything Everywhere All at Once Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Barry

Keoghan, The Banshees of

Inisherin; Brendan Gleeson,

The Banshees of Inisherin;

Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway; Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans; Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once Winner: Ke Huy Quan,

Everything Everywhere All at Once Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Angela

Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Hong

Chau, The Whale; Jamie

Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin; Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once Winner: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin Best Director: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Martin McDonagh,

The Ruben Banshees Östlund, of Triangle Inisherin; of Sadness; Steven Todd Spielberg, Field, The Fabelmans; Tár

Winner: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once Best Original Screenplay: Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Triangle of Sadness, Tár

Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin Best Adapted Screenplay: All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion, Living, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking

Winner: Women Talking Best Cinematography:

All Quiet on the Western Front, Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths, Elvis, Empire of Light, Tár

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front Best Film Editing: Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, Top Gun: Maverick, Tár Winner: Top Gun: Maverick Best Production Design:

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, The Fabelmans

Winner: Babylon Best Costume Design:

Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Winner: Elvis

Best Sound: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, The Batman, Top Gun: Maverick Winner: Top Gun: Maverick Best Makeup and Hairstyling: All Quiet on the Western Front, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, The Batman, The Whale

Winner: Elvis Best Original Score:

All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans

Winner: The Fabelmans Best Original Song:

“Lift Me Up,” Rihanna, Tems, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Göransson; Black Panther: Wakanda Forever;

“This Is a Life,” Mitski, Ryan Lott and David Byrne, Everything Everywhere All at Once; “Naatu Naatu,” M.M. Keeravani and Chandrabose, RRR; “Applause,” Diane Warren, Tell It Like a Woman; “Hold My Hand,” Lady Gaga and BloodPop, Top Gun: Maverick

Winner: “Naatu Naatu,” M.M. Keeravani and Chandrabose, RRR Best Visual Effects: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Batman, Top Gun: Maverick

Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water Best Documentary Feature: A House Made of Splinters, All That Breathes, All the Beauty and Bloodshed, Fire of Love, Navalny

Winner: Navalny Best Animated Feature:

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, Turning Red

Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio Best Animated Short:

An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It; Ice Merchants; My Year of (Expletive); The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse; The Flying Sailor

Winner: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse Best Live-Action Short:

An Irish Goodbye, Ivalu, Night Ride, The Pupils, The Red Suitcase

Winner: The Pupils Best Documentary Short: Haulout, How Do You Measure a Year?, Stranger at the Gate, The Elephant Whisperers, The Martha Mitchell Effect

Winner: Stranger at the Gate Best International Feature: All Quiet on the Western Front; Argentina, 1985; Close; Eo; The Quiet Girl Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front