Waiting for the Breeders’ Cup
When Unique Bella, making her first start in seven months, crossed the finish line 3½ lengths in front in Sunday’s L.A. Woman Stakes (G3), it brought a virtual end to this year’s Breeders’ Cup prep schedule. Between Sept. 29 and Oct. 8, thirtythree graded races — 18 of them Grade 1s — were contested at five tracks, most of them at Belmont, Keeneland and Santa Anita. Next Saturday’s Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) is the last race likely to produce a Breeders’ Cup starter.
Longshots prevailed in many of this past weekend’s Grade 1s. Zipessa won the First Lady at 161; Firenze Fire the Champagne at 11-1; Suedois the Shadwell Mile and War Flag the Flower Bowl at 9-1; and Romantic Vision the Spinster at 6-1. Of these five new Grade 1 winners, only the Frenchbred Suedois had previously won a race above the Grade/Group 3 level.
One reason for all the upsets is that there aren’t enough good horses to go around. Another reason is that more and more top runners are skipping these “traditional” preps and instead training up to the Breeders’ Cup. Of the 10 top thoroughbreds in last week’s NTRA poll, only one (Beach Patrol) ran in one of these 33 stakes. Two other ranked horses, West Coast and World Approval, last raced in mid-tolate September, and could not have been expected to run back this quickly. The remaining seven horses — Gun Runner, Arrogate, Collected, Lady Eli, Stellar Wind, Drefong and Mor Spirit — have not raced since before Labor Day. All but Gun Runner, whose open-lengths victory in the Woodward occurred on Sept. 2, will be making their first start in at least 10 weeks when they line up at Del Mar on Nov. 3 and 4.
At least five other 2017 Grade 1 winners, all of them reportedly Breeders’ Cupbound, will also have been away from the races 10 weeks or more: Forever Unbridled, By the Moon, Practical Joke, Paulassilverlining and Bigger Picture. So will Grade 1-placed Accelerate, Gunnevera and Finest City.
Not surprisingly, the fields in some of these preps were on the thin side. The Jockey Club Gold Cup — which was won by Diversify, who was making his first start in a graded race — and the Beldame drew only one Grade 1 winner each. The two Grade 1 winners in the Vosburgh included Green Gratto, who has failed to hit the board in all five starts since upsetting the Carter Handicap at 54-1 back in April.
Meanwhile, out at Santa Anita, Mubtaahij beat a decent field in the Awesome Again Stakes. But think how much more compelling that race would have been if Arrogate, Collected and/or Accelerate had shown up. Also, as nice as it was to see Paradise Woods back in the winner’s circle after beating three out-classed rivals in the Zenyatta Stakes, it would have been much more interesting to see how she would have fared against Stellar Wind. Unfortunately, these and other match-ups will have to wait for the Breeders’ Cup.
Of course, horses have been training up to the Breeders’ Cup for long periods for some years now. This year, however, there seem to be more than ever. When races are unable to draw Grade 1-caliber fields, it makes them less attractive from both a competitive and a wagering standpoint — and thus affects both handle and attendance. In time, it can also affect their Grade 1 status.