Trump’s swerves on economy, guns and migrants
WASHINGTON » President Donald Trump can’t seem to get his facts straight when it comes to Barack Obama.
From the economy to veterans and immigration, Trump routinely claims achievements of the former president as fully his own or distorts the truth to undermine the Democrat’s legacy. On problems uniquely his own, Trump deflects.
This past week was no different.
Fresh off vacation in Bedminster, New Jersey, and mindful of the 2020 campaign, Trump insisted that economists don’t believe his trade disputes with China could spur recession even though most analysts believe a downturn could start in the next two years. He also claimed progress on veterans’ health care under his watch that didn’t happen and blamed Obama for a policy of separating migrant children from their parents that he himself started.
Trump r epeat ed l y pointed to mental illness, not access to guns, as a main culprit behind the recent mass shootings in Texas and Ohio. That’s oversimplifying the issue.
A recap, also covering fuel economy standards and judges: ECONOMY TRUMP: “I don’t think we’re having a recession. We’re doing tremendously well ... And most economists actually say that we’re not going to have a recession.” — remarks Sunday to reporters in Morristown, New Jersey.
THE FACTS: Actually, most economists — about 74% — do expect a recession in the U. S. by the end of 2021.
The economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics mostly didn’t share Trump’s optimistic outlook for the economy. Thirtyfour percent of the economists said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2021. That’s compares with 25% in the February survey.
An additional 38% of those polled predicted that recession will occur next year, down slightly from 42% in February. An additional 2% of those polled expect a recession to begin this year.
The 226 economists responding work mainly for corporations and trade associations.
The economists have previously expressed concern that Trump’s tariffs and higher budget deficits could eventually slow the economy.
The Trump administration has imposed tariffs on goods from many key U. S. trading partners, from China and Europe to Mexico and Canada. Officials maintain that the tariffs, which are taxes on imports, will help the administration gain more favorable terms of trade. But U. S. trading partners have also retaliated with tariffs of their own.
TRUMP: “The Economy is doing really well. The Federal Reserve can easily make it Record Setting! The question is being asked, why are we paying much more in interest than Germany and certain other countries?” — tweet Thursday.
TRUMP: “Germany sells 30 year bonds offering negative yields. Germany competes with the USA. Our Federal Reserve does not allow us to do what we must do. They put us at a disadvantage against our competition.” — tweet Thursday.
THE FACTS: Trump misrepresents the impact of Federal Reserve policies and is mistaken about Germany’s economy, suggesting that it enjoys some kind of advantage. In fact, the negative yields are a sign of that economy’s weakness.
The German economy shrank in the previous quarter and there are expectations from investment banks that Germany soon could fall into a recession. Nor is the phenomenon isolated to Germany. Japan and much of Europe are also struggling with interest rates on government debt that are negative or close to negative.
Investors are betting that stimulus efforts by the European Central Bank will keep rates persistently low. But the negative interest rates on German bonds also ref lect that government’s aversion to issuing debt, even though the borrowing would allow it to spend more on roads and bridges to spur stronger economic growth.
By having even slightly positive interest rates compared to the rest of the world, the United States is in a better position to attract global investment.
TRUMP: “My administration has worked aggressively to boost veterans employment, and we’re setting records. ... Veterans unemployment has reached the lowest level ever recorded.” — remarks Wednesday at AMVETS convention in Louisville, Kentucky.
THE FACTS: It’s true that the unemployment rate for veterans fell to 2.3% in April, matching the low set in May 2000 under President Bill Clinton. But this figure is volatile on a monthly basis, not adjusted for seasonal changes, and has since risen. The figure stood at 3.4% in July, according to the Labor Department.
Veterans’ unemployment has fallen mostly for the same reasons that joblessness has dropped generally: strong hiring and steady economic growth over the past decade dating to the Obama administration. MIGRANTS TRUMP: “President Obama had separation. I’m the one that brought them together. This new rule will do even more to bring them together. But it was President Obama that had the separation.” — remarks Wednesday to reporters.
THE FACTS: Trump is distorting the truth. The separation of thousands of migrant children from their parents resulted from his “zero tolerance” policy. Obama had no such policy. After a public outcry and a court order, Trump generally ceased the practice and largely reunited families his policy had driven apart.
Zero tolerance meant that U. S. authorities would criminally prosecute all adults caught crossing into the U. S. illegally. Doing so meant detention for adults and the removal of their children while their parents were in custody. During the Obama administration, such family separations were the exception. They became the practice under Trump’s policy, which he suspended a year ago.
His administration is now moving to end an agreement limiting how long migrant children can be kept in detention. The new rules being adopted by the Homeland Security Department seek to keep families together by holding children in detention longer than the generally held limit of 20 days set by a federal court settlement.
Before Trump’s zero-tolerance policy, migrant families caught illegally entering the U.S. were usually referred for civil deportation proceedings, not requiring separation, unless they were known to have a criminal record. Then and now, immigration officials may take a child from a parent in certain cases, such as serious criminal charges against a parent, concerns over the health and welfare of a child or medical concerns. GUN VIOLENCE TRUMP, on prospects for gun control after mass shootings in Texas and Ohio: “We have very, very strong background checks right now. ... And we’re looking at different things. And I have to tell you that it is a mental problem. And I’ve said it a hundred times: It’s not the gun that pulls the trigger; it’s the person that pulls the trigger.” — remarks Tuesday with Romania’s president.
TRUMP: “I don’t want people to forget that this is a mental health problem. ... Just remember this: Big mental problem, and we do have a lot of background checks right now.” — remarks Sunday to reporters in Morristown, New Jersey.
THE FACTS: He’s oversimplifying the role of mental illness in public mass shootings and playing down the ease with which Americans can get firearms.
Most people with mental illness are not violent and they are far more likely to be victims of violent crime than perpetrators, according to mental health experts. They say that access to firearms actually is a big part of the problem.
Arthur Evans, chief executive officer of the American Psychological Association, said that red flag laws urged by Trump, which are also known as extreme risk protection orders, are a worthwhile step. Seventeen states and the District of Columbia have such laws, according to the nonprofit Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence; some have used the laws to temporarily disarm people who have threatened violence.
But Evans and others said assigning too much blame to those with mental illness adds to stigma that keeps people from getting treatment.
A country’s rate of gun ownership is a far better predictor of public mass shootings than indicators of mental illness, said Adam Lankford, a University of Alabama criminologist who published a 2016 analysis of data from 171 countries.
“The key of what’s going on here is access to guns for people who are dangerous or disturbed,” Lankford said. Red flag laws make it easier to disarm people believed to be a danger to themselves or others, “but sometimes there are not clear warning signs or those signs are not reported to the authorities until after an attack,” he said.
Last month, the U. S. Secret Service released a report on mass public attacks in 2018, finding that “no single profile” can be used “to predict who will engage in targeted violence” and “mental illness, alone, is not a risk factor.”