The Register Citizen (Torrington, CT)
Republicans hope to make the state House their home
Republicans have nearly doubled their presence in the state House of Representatives in the past decade, rising from 37 members after the 2008 election to the current 72.
They need to win just five more seats in November to gain a majority, a dominance the party has not held since 1984.
“In the past four election cycles, we’ve won 35 seats in the House. That’s not just gains, those are historic gains,” said Themis Klarides, House minority leader. “I see no reason why that can’t continue.”
For Klarides, it’s personal. She decided not to run for governor this year to focus on winning a House majority. If the GOP succeeds, she could become the first female Republican speaker of the House and second woman ever to have the job.
But Democrats, who now hold 80 of 151 House seats, feel optimistic that the fabled blue wave and their own slate of candidates will mean Democrats can not only keep but also strengthen their majority. The current speaker, Democrat Joe Aresimowicz, predicted his party will have 82 to 92 seats in
the House after the election.
“How many seats we pick up will probably depend on some very close races, but we feel very confident about where we are going,” said Matt Ritter, House majority leader.
Districts to watch
While candidates are knocking on doors all across the state, the battle for the House majority comes down to about 30 districts or less.
There are 19 open seats where no incumbent is running. Twelve of those seats are now held by Democrats, seven by Republicans. Each seat is a place where one party will be playing defense and the other, looking for a pickup.
“If you don’t have an incumbent running, that usually is an opportune time for turnover,” said Gayle Alberda, a professor of political science at Fairfield University. “Over 90 percent of incumbents win their re-election campaigns.”
In addition, there are eight other districts that were decided by fewer than 400 votes in 2016. Those slim margins mean those seats could be ripe for beating the incumbent, according to political observers.
The closest of those 2016 races was in East Haven, where state Rep. James Albis, a Democrat then in his third two-year term, beat Republican Steve Tracey by only 14 votes, requiring an automatic recount.
State Rep. Liz Linehan, who represents Chesire, Southington and Wallingford, also had a recount in 2016, after winning her election by 54 votes.
In four of those nail-biting races, voters split on their support for the state House and the U.S. president. Albis’s district in East Haven went for President Donald Trump, as did Democratic state Rep. Michelle Cook’s district in Torrington, where she won by 213 votes.
Two other districts voted for Clinton but narrowly elected Republicans to the state House in 2016. They are state Rep. William Duff’s seat in Bethel, and state Rep. Sam Belsito in Ashford, Willington and Tolland.
Aresimowicz said he feels “especially hopeful” about gains in districts from Milford to Stamford.
While many of these races will turn on local issues, Republicans up and down the ticket are pitching a message of change, a departure from the administration of unpopular Democratic Gov. Dannel P. Malloy and longtime Democratic legislative majorities.
“They’ve made your life worse,” said Klarides during a recent interview. “That’s the overall message.”
Meanwhile, Democrats may enjoy higher turnout on Nov. 6. According to data from the Connecticut Secretary of the State’s office, 77,668 new voters has registered as Democrats since the 2016 election, compared to 37,742 new Republican registrations. “If turnout is up five or ten percent in a district, a lot of those (people) will probably vote Democratic and that’s going to help our candidates,” said Ritter.
Midterms are traditionally a referendum on the president, said Alberda, the political scientist. But Trump is such a divisive figure that he may motivate voters on both sides to go to the polls.
“Does the GOP stand a chance? It’s possible,” said Alberda. “Five seats doesn’t seem like large number — five is pretty little — but at the same time, it’s a big feat.”