Conn. expects 60% of teachers and people 55-64 to sign up

In the months since the first person was vaccinated against the coronavirus, 602,697 people in Connecticut have received at least one dose. In a single day, on March 1, about 610,000 people will become eligible.

How the state will handle the increased number of patients is largely a numbers game, with a complex, growing network designed to inject tens of thousands of arms every day. Its success depends on an ever-increasing supply of doses — and a demand that falls short of what public health officials suggest.

When Gov. Ned Lamont announced Monday that the vaccine would be rolled out by age group, he and other state officials described three-week intervals, an approximate time frame for each group. March 1 would launch vaccinations for people age 55 to 64, which is about 515,000 Connecticut residents, or 14.6 percent of the state’s total population.

Lamont also said teachers, other in-school workers and child care professionals would be eligible on March 1, a group that comprises 160,000 people.

Subtract the 63,000 or so people who already received the vaccine in the 55-64 age group and you have more people eligible on that one day than have already received the

vaccine since Dec. 14.

But no one expects 100 percent of that group to seek a shot in the arm immediately, and some never will.

“We know not everyone’s going to take the vaccine when it’s offered the first time around,” said Josh Geballe, the state’s chief operating officer. “We assume a 60 percent uptake.”

That means Connecticut expects about 360,000 people to get the vaccine in the first weeks of March.

Supply should not be a problem, Geballe said. Connecticut expects to average at least 105,000 to 110,000 doses delivered every week, meaning the state can “work our way through that group in three to four weeks.”

The next group, people age 45 to 54, become eligible on March 22. That’s

about 480,000 people, and Geballe said he expects 400,000 people or fewer to take advantage.

Up after that are people between the ages of 35 and 44, another 427,000 on April 12 — minus teachers and health care professionals already vaccinated.

Then the largest group becomes eligible on May 3. There are about 875,000 people in Connecticut between the ages of 16 and 34.

To put the picture in broad perspective: Connecticut has about 2.9 million people 16 and older. A goal of vaccinating 70 percent, or just over 2 million, means about 1.45 million more need to be inoculated. First vaccinations can be done in three months or less if the supply expands from the current level of about 90,000 doses a week.

Geballe said he expects vaccine supply, provided by the federal government,

to meet that level of demand.

“All throughout this, the allocations are continuing to increase,” he said. “Things will continue to accelerate as we go forward.”

Of course, it’s not so cut-and-dried. “Not everyone will get vaccinated on May 3,” Geballe said, or any one date, and there will be overlap. Some people who were eligible earlier in the year but chose to wait will sign up.

Some states have had issues with the sign-up process. Massachusetts’ statewide vaccination signup website crashed earlier this month. “Unfortunately, the system did not scale fast enough to accommodate the increased volume," said PrepMod, the company that developed the site, in a statement to WBUR.

The Los Angeles Times reported that California’s signup site was plagued with software hiccups,

and software issues were blamed for similar problems in Philadelphia.

Those problems have encouraged some states to move to pre-registration, allowing everyone to input their information in advance so that they can be alerted when a slot becomes available.

“We need to make it as easy as possible for every Minnesotan to get the vaccine when it’s their turn,” said Minnesota Gov. Tim Waltz when his state announced a statewide pre-registration system.

But Geballe said he did not foresee similar issues in Connecticut and, as such, residents cannot register until their eligibility date comes around.

“I don't think our challenge is that people aren't able to pre-register right now,” he said. Instead, the goal is to “make it as easy as possible for people, once they become eligible, to get an appointment.”