Don’t bet on sports betting by NFL kickoff day

It seemed like a reasonable goal back on May 27 when Gov. Ned Lamont signed the bill bringing online gambling and sports betting to Connecticut. The governor’s chief of staff suggested we could see wagers by the time the NFL kicks off its season and Lamont agreed.

That Sept. 9 deadline for the sweeping gaming expansion became gospel, as people across the industry and state government have made it a statewide challenge.

“My goal is to not miss any games,” said Sen. Cathy Osten, D-Sprague, the main sponsor of the bill who, as it happens, also sits on the General Assembly’s regulations review committee, which must approve the new rules.

One problem: That Sept. 9 date was a long shot from the first day and it’s still a tough game plan to meet.

It’s not impossible, but like a 43-year-old quarterback winning a Super Bowl, everything must play out perfectly. And I mean perfectly, with no problems whatsoever.

More likely, we’ll see the expansion, including inperson sports betting around the state and at the two Native American casinos, sometime in the earlyto mid-fall.

Three things have to happen, all of them in the works since the spring, all rolling on parallel tracks: The U.S. Department of the Interior must approve a new memorandum of understanding between the state and the tribes; the state Department of Consumer Protection must issue licenses to all sorts of people and companies.

And dozens of pages of regulations must wend through a maze on the way to a vote by the legislative committee, which meets just once a month.

This week is crucial — not fourth down but more like a long third down, close to field goal range.

The MOU has been negotiated and is set to ship out to the Bureau of Indian Affairs, part of the Department of the Interior, for approval. The governor’s office has reviewed the regulations and will run them by the tribes and the Connecticut Lottery Corp., to make sure there isn’t some little detail that gums up the gaming.

And the Lottery Corp. is preparing to announce a contractor to run as many as 15 on-site sports betting locations, including in Hartford and Bridgeport.

What could possibly go wrong? Let’s start with the MOU, the so-called compact between the state and the Mashantucket Pequot and Mohegan nations, dating to the 1990s, which now must be amended.

The Bureau of Indian Affairs has 45 days to act, which would put the clock at Sept. 3 if we start this Wednesday. Could the agency have questions, or issue a rejection due to a technical issue? The betting says no, we’re fine, but recall — it took more than a year for everyone to agree the MOU amendments were in place in the illfated East Windsor casino plan, in 2017 and 2018.

I won’t go through all the painful steps here, but suffice to say it included a lawsuit against the federal agency, in which the state and the tribes said BIA had approved the new compact by not acting within 45 days. By the time approval came, the East Windsor casino plan was dead for other reasons.

This time is different according to Osten, Rodney Butler, the Mashantucket chairman, and the governor’s office. The erratic Trump administration is out of office; MGM Resorts International, a powerful opponent of the East Windsor plan, is not in the picture; and this amendment is a lot simpler than approving an off-site casino run jointly by two tribes that compete against each other.

Bet on a smooth MOU approval, but don’t wager the whole farm.

Then we get to the regulations, which are designated as an emergency process for some reason. Even emergency regulations for a complex law normally take several months from the time they’re drafted to final approval. We’re talking about five separate forms of gaming expansion here, including real sports, fantasy sports, online casino games and online lottery games.

The Department of Consumer Protection drafted the regs and submitted them to the governor’s office in late June or early July for the first round of review.

I’m told the final regs must go to the legislative management office by Tuesday, Aug. 3, in order to make it onto the agenda for the committee vote late next month. Osten says they have until Aug. 9. Assuming her information is right — the bureaucracy can be flexible when the winds are just right — that’s still a tough deadline considering the state attorney general’s office has yet to receive them, and must sign off.

Remember, these regs have to be right the first time, on all kinds of details such as what, exactly, it means for addicted or potentially addicted gamblers to place themselves on an exclusion list; and who, exactly, settles various disputes that may arise.

There is no public hearing for these regulations, but that doesn’t mean opponents won’t petition the attorney general or, more likely, the regulations review committee. That, in the words of one person in the middle of all this, has led to a game of volleyball in the past — meaning, let’s make a little change and come back next month.

Wanna bet against any small glitches?

As for the licensing, that’s arguably the safest bet but it does involve contacting other states for some form of reciprocal licensing of some of the companies involved in sports betting and online gaming. And it can’t happen formally until the feds approve the change. The DCP is on the case.

That first game of the season carries great interest because it’s the Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their inhuman quarterback, Tom Brady, againt the Dallas Cowboys. Thousands of people have lost millions of dollars betting against the 43-year-old Brady and if we in Connecticut want to join that parade, legally, the three-track industry setup must perform like a Swiss watch between now and the Sept. 9 kickoff.

Or, I should say, like a successful offensive line — a beautiful thing to watch, but an extreme rarity.