Congress unlikely to save — or end — protections under Roe v. Wade

WASHINGTON — Fighting for decades over abortion policy, Congress is about to run into the stark political limits of its ability to save — or end — the Roe v. Wade protections.

President Joe Biden has called on Democrats to enshrine the nearly 50-year-old Supreme Court ruling into law after the disclosure of a draft opinion that would overturn the landmark decision that declared a constitutional right to abortion services.

But passing bills is easier said than done in the narrowly split Congress — reflective of a deeply divided nation.

A test vote Wednesday in the Senate on a Democratic bill to protect access to abortions is expected to fail, blocked by a Republican-led filibuster.

At the same time, Republicans led by Sen. Mitch McConnell face similar political problems trying to ban abortions nationwide, even if they wrest control of the chamber in next fall’s midterm elections.

Instead, whatever the Supreme Court decides on Roe v. Wade in its final opinion this summer almost guarantees a new era of political fighting in Congress over abortion policy, filibuster rules and the most basic rights to health care, privacy and protecting the unborn.

“All of us will have to answer for this vote for the rest of our time in public office,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer ahead of Wednesday’s action.

In recent years, abortion access debates in many ways have come to a standstill in Congress, a political draw, as lawmakers faced the limits of trying to move public policy beyond the historic Roe v. Wade court decision. Bills would routinely come up for votes — to expand or limit abortion services — only to fall along typically party line votes or be stripped out of broader legislative packages.

But the Supreme Court’s conservative 6-3 majority, solidified during the Trump era, has ignited an urgent shift to the forefront in Congress.

McConnell stunned Washington when he said “it’s possible” to see a national abortion ban.

The Republican leader has been a key architect of the Supreme Court’s solid conservative majority, engineering rapid-fire confirmation of three of Donald Trump’s nominees in just four years and changing Senate filibuster rules to push past Democratic objections.

In an interview with USA Today, McConnell recently said, “If the leaked opinion became the final opinion, legislative bodies — not only at the state level but at the federal level — certainly could legislate in that area.“

But on Tuesday McConnell acknowledged that if Republicans become the majority in the Senate they still are unlikely to have enough votes to ban abortion outright.

“The widespread sentiment in my conference is this issue will be dealt with at the state level,” McConnell said. He said Republicans won’t have the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster.

Likewise, Democrat Brian Schatz of Hawaii said for the other side, “I think we have to be explicit and tell the truth, which is, we don’t currently have the votes.” Still, he said hopefully that if voters elect more senators who favor abortion rights, “we will put this into federal law.”

Both parties face enormous pressure to convince voters they are doing all they can — the Democrats working to preserve abortion access and the Republicans to end it — as they race toward fall when control of Congress is at stake in the elections.

The congressional campaign committees are fundraising off the abortion issue, and working furiously to energize voters who are already primed to engage when such a long-running and important issue for millions of Americans is at stake.

The two Republican senators who support abortion access, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who faces her own reelection in November, and Susan Collins of Maine, have proposed a separate bill that would counter the Supreme Court’s action.

But both senators, who voted to confirm most of Trump’s justices, are expected to stick with their Republican Party this week and block the Democratic bill as too broad.