CT COVID numbers show slight rise — again

COVID-19 may be increasing in Connecticut once again, state numbers show, only weeks after they began to decrease following a surprise spring spike.

The Department of Public Health on Thursday released its first full COVID-19 data report since last week, revealing that the state has recorded 3,812 new cases in the past week, with 9.25 percent of tests coming back positive. Both those figures represent slight increases over last week, suggesting that the disease has again begun to spread more quickly.

Whereas Connecticut once had reason to hope for a summer of low COVID-19 transmission, the arrival of new, ultra-contagious subvariants appear to have foreclosed that possibility.

“This may be our new baseline,” said Dr. Ulysses Wu, chief epidemiologist at Hartford HealthCare. “With extremely contagious variants and a population that is ambivalent at best towards [COVID], I think this is where we’re going to live right now.”

As of Thursday, Connecticut has 235 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, essentially unchanged from last week and about 35% fewer than this time last month. The state reported 11 additional COVID-linked deaths over the past week, bringing its total to 11,045 during the pandemic.

COVID-19 deaths in Connecticut have remained lower this spring than they were last spring, despite higher levels of cases and hospitalizations. Wu attributed this decrease in mortality to the properties of the current variants, as well as vaccination and improvements in treatment.

“We’re not at quite the common cold, but we’re getting there,” he said.

Connecticut’s recent uptick in COVID-19 cases and positivity rate appears to owe to the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants, which have begun to spread widely in the state over recent weeks and may now account for more than half the state’s cases. Experts say BA.4 and BA.5 are the most contagious subvariants yet, with an ability to evade both vaccine-induced and natural immunity.

As an apparent result, Connecticut’s seven-day test positivity rate now stands at its highest level in three weeks, while cases are up as well. Though case counts and positivity rates are likely skewed due to the widespread use of at-home tests that don’t get reported to state authorities, experts say both metrics can be useful in ascertaining broad trends.

Gov. Ned Lamont announced last week that moving forward Connecticut would publish full COVID-19 data reports only once a week, on Thursday, though daily numbers remain available through the state’s data portal.

“We know that with new variants emerging this [disease] is not going to just go away with one vaccine or more boosters,” said Dr. Manisha Juthani, the state’s public health commissioner, in explaining the change. “It’s going to be here, and we’re going to have to be aware of it and monitor it.”