Do you feel safe? Stats say you should

Let’s face it; we all know that public safety in Connecticut is a problem.” Bob Stefanowski wrote these words on these pages a little more than a year ago, when he was building his case to run again for governor against Ned Lamont. Few questions play to people’s emotions as effectively as “do you feel safe?” In the immediate aftermath of the worst days of COVID, few Americans could sincerely answer in the affirmative.

Candidates often try to make voters feel unstable about the state of their daily lives. Once elected, they do just the opposite. So for the past year, Stefanowski has repeatedly raised the drumbeat on the idea that Connecticut is not a safe place to live.

Gov. Lamont’s administration — not his campaign, but the state Department of Emergency Services and Public Protection — offered crime figures Monday that serve as a counterpoint to the emotions Stefanowski has been striving to summon.

Crime is down by 3 percent in Connecticut, the figures tell us. Even more encouraging, the overall percentage was not driven down by minor offenses, but by a 9 percent dip in violent crime.

If Connecticut residents should feel good about anything, it’s the decrease in aggravated assaults over the past decade. Though nothing seizes headlines and inspires fear more than a rash of murders, the reality is that many victims are spared their lives as a result of medical advances. Aggravated assaults — which could easily become murders — dropped over the past decade from 5,417 to 3,079. It’s also a significant decrease from the peak year of COVID in 2020, when 3,699 aggravated assaults were reported.

Violent crime, meanwhile, plummeted from 10,361 reported offenses in 2012 to 5,957 in 2021.

One notable area that demands attention is a rise in reported rapes. Though the number of cases increased from 638 in 2020 to 786 in 2021, the first year of COVID also represented a decrease from 806 in 2019.

Sexual assault figures are complex, as victims may have faced challenges reporting incidents during social isolation, and come forward months later.

Stefanowski’s drumbeat made the decrease in property crimes resonate even more than it might have otherwise. Burglaries and car thefts tend to be the type of crimes that tilt the reputation of a neighborhood.

Yet Republicans responded Monday by essentially reviving Stefanowski’s “we all know” tone of 13 months ago.

“Ask your neighbors and friends if they feel safer today ...” House Minority Leader Vincent J. Candelora, R-North Branford, said.

At some point, playing to emotions over data becomes irresponsible. Regardless of the crime stats, there will always be work to be done.

First of all, too many neighborhoods in Connecticut are not safe. And both candidates need to come up with suggestions for recruiting the next generation of public safety officers.

While Stefanowski is unlikely to drop his stand that the police accountability bill needs to be revisited, Lamont said this week that he’s willing to explore tweaks in the law, which demands constant monitoring to ensure it is serving both the public and police appropriately.

But even as Lamont and Stefanowski debate nuances of crime stats, we hope Democrats, Republicans and yes, neighbors across Connecticut, can unite to give credit to state and local police.

Candidates often try to make voters feel unstable about the state of their daily lives. Once elected, they do just the opposite.