Israel has no coherent strategy for Palestine; it’s time for a reset
Israel stumbled into the current war in Gaza, and its military commanders are now doing their job of inflicting maximum pain on their adversary, Hamas. But there’s no sign of a coherent strategy that will bring long-term peace and stability any closer. That’s a problem that should worry Israel and its friends.
Let’s be honest: If Israel could bomb the defiant, missile-firing militants of Hamas into permanent submission, it would have succeeded long ago. But this strategy has been a recurring failure for a generation. It’s time for the United States and its allies to encourage something different -- a slow but necessary reset in Gaza.
Trying to fix the fundamentals will seem to many exhausted Israelis like a naive fantasy. Israeli leaders pride themselves on being hardheaded, and they sometimes speak brusquely of the recurring
Gaza wars (and the lopsided casualty counts) as “mowing the lawn.” Yet there’s a toxic blowback for this gardener. These wars don’t provide lasting security; they end up sapping support for Israel. And Hamas ends up stronger, not weaker.
A real reset, difficult as it will be to achieve, would begin with a stable and enforceable ceasefire agreement, which might take weeks to negotiate. Israel would undoubtedly prefer Hamas’ unconditional surrender, but that would require a reoccupation of Gaza, which Israel doesn’t want. Better to negotiate, through intermediaries such as Egypt, Qatar and the United States. Negotiation empowers the other side. That’s good: The Palestinians crave dignity.
What would this reset look like? For an answer, take a look around Israel’s borders. A new Middle East is emerging. Before this wretched war began, the big news in the region was de-escalation. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were conducting talks with Iran. The Emiratis were also talking to their other nemesis, Turkey, which in turn was sending a delegation to its rival, Egypt. Overarching all these positive trends was Israel’s normalization of relations with its Arab neighbors.
The Trump administration deserves credit for encouraging Arab normalization but blame for leaving the Palestinians out of the mix. This month’s war reminds us that ignoring Palestinian political demands in the hope that their aspirations for a state will eventually disappear isn’t a strategy -it’s a dangerous delusion.
Beyond a negotiated, durable cease fire, the Palestinians need three pillars for stability: new political leadership, economic reconstruction and security. Putting them together will take years, but this month’s ruinous war is the right time to start.
Let’s begin with political leadership. Palestinian politics are broken. (So are Israel’s, but that’s a subject for another column.) Hamas is popular because the Palestinian Authority under President Mahmoud Abbas has failed so miserably -- and also because of Hamas’s militance. But Hamas is at a dead end now, and even the Qataris who bankroll Gaza know it. Abbas has reached a dead end, too. The United States detached from the Palestinian leadership during the Trump administration. Now it’s time to reconnect and rebuild.
Economic development is the easiest piece of this puzzle. It just takes money -- and Israeli recognition that a more prosperous Gaza and West Bank will be less threatening. There’s even a road map for economic development, thanks to Jared Kushner, former president Donald Trump’s son-inlaw and Middle East fixer. Saudi, Emirati, Qatari, European and American money will back those projects if the Palestinians can be convinced to play.
Security is the hardest problem. Israelis and Palestinians must be confident their families won’t be ravaged by bombs and rockets. For the Palestinians to deliver, they will need a non-Hamas security force that’s tough enough to maintain order without becoming an oppressive secret police.
Here’s an unlikely but timetested formula: The Palestinians need a training and liaison partnership with the CIA. Director William Burns, who speaks Arabic and has served as ambassador to Jordan, is the perfect person to lead that effort.
Maybe it’s folly to talk about an Israeli-Palestinian reset. But given the stakes, and the seemingly unending loss of Israeli and Palestinian lives, it’s irresponsible to talk about anything else.