President Biden’s big mistake on the infrastructure deal

President Joe Biden’s big gaffe was not his threat to veto a $1.2 trillion infrastructure deal he had just reached with Republicans. It was accidentally saying out loud what everyone in Washington knows, but most Americans do not: that he has not compromised on infrastructure at all — and does not intend to do so. Standing with Republican senators, Biden boasted that “neither side got everything they wanted in this deal.” That is untrue. Biden does plan to get everything he wants from the deal. While he walked back his veto threat, he is still insisting that Congress pass not one, but two infrastructure bills: the bipartisan agreement he negotiated with Republicans, and a second passed with only Democratic votes using the budget reconciliation process that includes everything he gave up in negotiations with those Republicans. “The president intends to sign both pieces of legislation into law,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki reiterated Monday.

Sorry, that is not compromise. If he signs two bills, Biden has given up absolutely nothing. Quite the opposite, he not only gets everything he wanted, he also gets false credit for fulfilling his campaign promise to reach across the aisle and compromise.

So why is this a good deal for Republicans? Because it is not clear Democrats can pull this scam off. Indeed, by agreeing to a bipartisan deal, Republicans have thrown Democrats into disarray.

Just look at the chaos that has unfolded over the past few days. First, Biden came out to the White House driveway and praised the deal he struck with Republicans. Shortly after, he threatened to veto the deal he had just announced. Then, he issued an extraordinary eight-paragraph statement walking back that threat. Meanwhile, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., contradicted Biden, threatening to kill his bipartisan deal unless the Senate first passed a Democrats-only package. “There ain’t gonna be no bipartisan bill, unless we have a reconciliation bill. … Plain and simple,” she said. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., piled on, tweeting “Let me be clear: There will not be a bipartisan infrastructure deal without a reconciliation bill.” All this turmoil because Biden struck a bipartisan agreement with Republicans.

Second, Pelosi’s reaction suggests she’s not confident Democrats can pass a reconciliation bill if Biden’s deal with Republicans gets approved. Before the deal, Biden’s plan was to use “infrastructure” as cover to pass all sorts of non-infrastructure spending — just as he used his “COVID-19 relief” bill to pass all sorts of non-COVID-19 spending. But by putting all the hard infrastructure spending into a bipartisan package, Republicans have taken away the sugarcoating from that reconciliation bill. Democrats will now have to pass trillions of dollars in liberal projects, and massive tax hikes to pay for it, without roads and bridges as cover.

That complicates things for Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. If Democrats try to pass a partisan reconciliation bill first — as Pelosi insists — then they will be killing the bipartisan infrastructure deal. But if they try to pass the bipartisan deal first, it’s not clear they will have the votes to pass a reconciliation bill.

Third, the Republicans who negotiated the bipartisan deal now look like the only adults in the room. By reaching a bipartisan agreement, they have shown that they are willing to compromise and work with Biden. They have also given their fellow Republicans something to vote for, without violating their core principles.

Finally, Republicans have thwarted Schumer’s attempts to get rid of the filibuster by painting Republicans as obstructionist. They delivered for the two Democratic senators — Joe Manchin III of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona — who have been pushing for bipartisan compromise, and whose votes they need to protect the filibuster. If that bipartisan deal fails because Democrats in Congress kill it, then Schumer and Pelosi will own that failure and lose any justification for eliminating the filibuster.

How will this play out? This much is certain: If Pelosi and Sanders are unhappy, then Republicans are in a much stronger position than they were before they struck a deal with Biden.