Accuracy of Pa. stats on second shots questioned
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The accuracy of Pennsylvania Department of Health statistics — a reflection of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention numbers -- are being called into question because of the high number of people still listed as needing a second shot.
During a briefing Wednesday, Dr. Debra Bogen, the director of the Allegheny County Health Department, hinted at a problem: “Most people are returning to get their second doses.
“We are getting questions
about second doses because there are some data that are confusing in terms of the state.
“We have very good data on the vaccine that Allegheny County Health Department is giving and we rely on the state for the rest of the county data.
“There are some questions about the early registration system that was used (by the state) and matching people in that system.”
She went on to explain that the software might not match the person getting the first dose with the second if that person provides a shortened form of the first name instead of the full name, or uses a middle initial one time but not the second, or any potential differences in referring to themselves.
“I know there were some issues with that initially and I know the state has been working on that, matching up names on the back end,” she said.
In short, Bogen is saying there was double counting. But the magnitude remains unanswered.
The state health department dashboard shows 174,000 people in Allegheny County still need a second shot.
Allegheny health department spokesman Chris Togneri added this Thursday: “The example shows that yes there are discrepancies and here’s an example of what may be accounting for them. But we don’t know how many yet. Still working through that.”
Mum on data
The Pennsylvania Department of Health in the past two weeks has not responded to several requests from the Reading Eagle for comment about vaccine data in general, and about the number of partials that remain, in specific, as the situation becomes more obvious that there is a glut of partials on the books, and something is not right.
The daily updates continue to be based on the data the agency has reported all along. The number of partials is only decreasing by a few thousand a day statewide.
At the same time, the state is touting figures of about how many people have had a least one dose.
Last week, Gov. Tom Wolf’s office issued a press release celebrating that 75% of Pennsylvanians age 18 and older have received at least one shot.
Any data inaccuracies might throw water on that claim.
Wolf had set a goal of 70% of those 18 and older to be fully vaccinated to lift the mask mandate on June 28. By June 28, the state hadn’t quite reached 60%, but the mask requirement was lifted.
The most recent response from the state Department of Health was June 7 by press secretary Mark O’Neill, and all was normal:
“Throughout Pennsylvania, we have been extremely pleased with the number of people who have returned for their second doses of Pfizer and Moderna, as the number of fully vaccinated people continues to rise across the commonwealth.
“Meanwhile, vaccination sites and other vaccine providers schedule second shots during the time the patient is receiving the first shot of Pfizer or Moderna. The providers are then able to ensure that they have the
required number of second shots available for people to receive their second doses three to four weeks later (depending on which vaccine the person receives).
“In addition, mass vaccination sites that are no longer providing first shots continue to accommodate people who are scheduled to return for their second shots.”
Representatives of health departments in the highest populated counties are reluctant to discuss the state’s vaccine data.
One county wants to talk about it: Philadelphia, the biggest.
“The reporting has been a problem nationwide,” James Garrow, Philadelphia health department communications director, said in an email.
Gerrow said he has been “asking (the news media) to stop depending so heavily on the CDC reported numbers, as we’ve lost faith in them. Even what we’re reporting … is an accumulation of disparate data sources.”
In the City of Brotherly Love of 1.6 million residents, there remains about 180,000 who still need a second shot, according to Philly’s website, but Gerrow, the most outspoken of the critics of the vaccine reporting process, is dubious.
“We don’t know how many people in Philadelphia truly need a second dose of vaccine,” Gerrow said. “It seems like a simple subtraction problem, but due to the vagaries of how vaccine data is collected and shared betwixt jurisdictions, it’s not.”
Closer to home
In Chester County, health officials weeks ago said they know the state Department of Health numbers of “partials” for that county are out of line due to a software problem on the state’s end but it’s still not fixed.
It’s likely the same problem as Allegheny is illustrating, judging by the terminology both counties have mentioned: the PASIIS system, the Pennsylvania Statewide Immunization Information System.
Chester County’s statistical total of eligible residents getting a least one shot is an extraordinary 82.3%, according to the state’s dashboard, which includes 147,000 still on the books with one shot only in a county of 525,000 residents.
It’s unclear if the percentage of people who walked away from a second shot in Pennsylvania was much higher than 5%, or if there were reporting errors from the beginning everywhere as in Chester County.
That county didn’t want to say anymore about the software problem for the purposes of this story.
Montgomery County
In Montgomery County, the health department has set a stellar return rate, completing vaccinations on 100,000 or so residents with just a few thousand left.
But, if the state statistics are to be believed, other providers have dropped the ball and there are still almost 170,000 residents in need of a second shot. The county health department didn’t want to comment about that number.
County spokesperson Kelly Cofrancisco said this:
“As of June 15th we have 98,049 fully vaccinated (89,529 Moderna & Pfizer & 8,520 J&J) and 3,820 partially vaccinated. This equates to 96% fully vaccinated and 4% partially vaccinated.
“Again, we cannot speak for the entire county, we can only speak to the vaccine that was administered by the county OPH (Office of Public Health). Other providers are separate and upload their own data.
“Each vaccine provider must upload their vaccine data to PA SIIS which is maintained by the Pennsylvania Department of Health so you would need to check with them on the reporting. We stand by our vaccination data as shown above.”
O’Neill most recent statement: “And specifically, we do not have evidence that people in Chester and Montgomery counties are not returning for second doses at a disproportionate rate (or a rate higher than 5%).”
Assuming the Pennsylvania data are correct:
• In Chester County, 40% still have to finish the process.
• In Montgomery County, it’s less but still high at 35%.
• In Allegheny County, the rate is about 23%.
None of those three counties report vaccinations data on their own but link to the state site.
Overall in Pennsylvania, about 20% of those who started the process have yet to finish it, but those three counties figure heavily in the state rate.
In adjoining Lancaster County, the sixth-most populous, the rate is down to 10% of the total who still have to finish.
Philadelphia County is separate from the rest of the state since it was under a direct federal administration of vaccine.
The Johnson & Johnson one-shot vaccinations are up to roughly 500,000 in Pennsylvania and the individual who gets one is immediately considered fully inoculated and does not enter into the partials number or controversy.
There are about 5.4 million Pennsylvania residents listed as fully inoculated.