Wolf stands down
Governor hasn’t tried to reinstate COVID mandates
In some ways, the past month has looked a lot like the early days of the COVID pandemic.
The number of new daily cases across Pennsylvania have been similar to or exceeded data from the spring of 2020. Counts over the second half of the month have been particularly concerning, topping anything seen between March and early November of last year.
The disease is spreading just as quickly, too, spurred by the highly-infectious delta strain. Every county in the state currently has a community transmission rate of substantial or high.
But other things look much different than they did 17 months ago.
One obvious change is that a COVID vaccine is available and easily accessible. Actually, there are three of them approved for use.
Another difference, likely related to the vaccines and better
therapeutics, is that Pennsylvania has seen much fewer deaths from COVID. Statewide daily death totals only recently surged above 25 so far this month, a huge decline from last spring when the number of deaths hit a high of 184 on April 25.
Hospitals also find themselves on better footing, not sounding the alarm that the pandemic is pushing them to their absolute limits like it was before.
Of course, one of the biggest changes, the one that’s likely most noticeable to everyday people, is that all the COVID-fighting mandates handed down by the state are gone.
In March 2020, Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf closed down schools. He issued stay-at-home orders and shuttered businesses.
He later imposed other restrictions, like making everyone wear a mask when they were in indoor public spaces. Over the winter he reintroduced a temporary ban on indoor dining.
Throughout the first year of the pandemic, the state government, in particular the governor, played a very active role. But now that’s no longer the case.
The governor’s orders — masking mandates, indoor dining bans and business shutdowns — have all expired. And, so far, the latest COVID wave hasn’t led him to try to reinstate any of them.
An example of Wolf’s new approach came Wednesday, when news broke that the governor had reached out to Republican legislative leaders asking them to reconvene and pass a statewide requirement for masks in schools. Before that, the administration had merely been recommending schools follow federal guidance.
Republican leadership has declined Wolf’s request.
Asking the Legislature to act instead of acting himself is much different from how Wolf handled things previously. So what, exactly, happened?
Powers diminished
In May, Pennsylvania voters became the first in the nation to curb the emergency powers that many governors across the country deployed to respond to the COVID pandemic.
About 52% of primary voters approved two constitutional amendments that limit an emergency declaration to 21 days and give state lawmakers the sole authority to extend it or end it with a simple majority vote.
Previously, the constitution required a two-thirds majority vote by lawmakers to end a governor’s emergency declaration and, legally, the governor could issue an emergency declaration for up to 90 days and extend it without limits.
In the days following the election, the top Republicans in the Legislature described the vote as a victory for individual freedoms and as a move to reestablish checks and balances to ensure a collaborative government.
Wolf, however, maintained the changes to emergency declarations doesn’t affect orders issued by his administration designed to prevent COVID from spreading.
Sen. Bob Mensch, a member of the Senate Health & Human Services Committee, said he disagrees with Wolf’s interpretation of the impact of the new amendments.
“Because of the constitutional amendments that were passed he cannot make any mandates without a declaration of emergency and he cannot do that without the Legislature,” the Montgomery County Republican said.
Mensch said he believes the amendments sufficiently limited the governor’s ability to take away rights from people. Those powers, he said, now fall to local elected leaders and that’s how it should be.
“Our caucus argued from the beginning that the responsibility to issue rules should be as local as possible,” he said. “That is the design of government in Pennsylvania. And it puts the people much more squarely in the process and allows them to have a voice.”
Sen. Judy Schwank, who also serves as a member of the Senate Health & Human Services Committee, said the passage of the amendments has created some challenges for the administration to act alone.
‘’I think right now, to some degree, the governor’s hands are tied,” the Ruscombmanor Township Democrat said.
But she said she’s optimistic the Republican-led Legislature will work with the administration to do what is necessary if COVID cases rise to a level that threatens to overwhelm hospital systems — even if that means reinstating mandates and putting restrictions in place.
“I would hope that if the situation with delta or some other COVID variant gets out of control that the governor would step forward,” she said. “And I know the Legislature would as well — I know I would. I would be voting to put in restrictions if we needed them.”
Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, said he thinks the passage of the constitutional amendments is a big factor as to why Wolf decided to appeal to state lawmakers on the school masking issue.
“He is probably considering those ballot questions because the outcomes showed that people want checks and balances,” he said. “You have to assume that he’s thinking about what the political pushback would be and what the Legislature might do to prevent any mandate that he may issue.”
Yost said things might be different if Wolf had more support from the public, noting that Franklin & Marshall College polls show the governor’s approval rating has sunk by 10 percentage points since the start of the pandemic.
Mandates became political
The pandemic, which could have conceivably united the country against a common foe, has instead contributed to growing political divides.
Yost said partisan affiliation is often the strongest single predictor of attitudes about COVID, even more powerful than demographic characteristics like age and health status.
Yost said the pandemic has been a case study in the role of government in our lives. And it shows just how complicated that decision making can be.
“We are closely politically divided in Pennsylvania,” he said. “Republicans in general tend to opt toward lesser involvement in this crisis whereas Democrats want a little more governmental guidance. The Wolf administration is probably considering both of those arguments.”
Yost said Wolf finds himself in a situation where there are no wins to be had.
“If he takes strong, assertive action he’s going to generate a backlash politically and within the Legislature,” he said. “I think there’s no doubt that there was backlash after the first wave of COVID cases. And I also think people are worn out by this whole thing and that plays a part in this.”
Yost said there is probably fear that the potential backlash from the public would mean mandates would do more harm than good at this point.
Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in Allentown, said he agrees with that sentiment.
“From a political perspective, the Wolf administration spent a lot of capital, energy and resources during the earlier stages of the pandemic whereas the policies and mandates often drew considerable backlash from Republican leaders in Harrisburg and from the general public,” he said.
Borick said Wolf’s approval ratings took a hit during the pandemic and that it is clear that political leaders on both sides of the aisle found that managing this crisis has taken a toll.
So as we come into this latest wave, Borick said he thinks we’re seeing a little more reticence by Wolf to go down the same path. That might be because we’re not in the same place but it is also because the public is not as willing to go all in.
“Some of that fatigue that has set in may be part of the political calculus,” he said, noting that the Wolf administration has instead decided to focus its attention on urging people to take the vaccine and opt for making recommendations.
‘Aversion to mandates’
Borick said mandates are greeted differently than recommendations.
“It’s an American characteristic in terms of our aversion to mandates and government rules,” he said. “And certainly there are times when government officials will make the case that in order to protect the overall public it’s something we have to live with, but that’s a big move and people will quickly build up resentment and anger toward those types of mandates.”
That means government institutions have a bit of juggling to do when considering what the best path forward is, Borick said.
“Certainly, recommendations and advisories are much easier for the public to swallow,” he said. “The trade off is, do they get followed and implemented the same way mandates do? The answer is probably not. But again you have to read the public as you build these policies.”
It just might be, Borick said, that the best approach a year ago is not the best approach today.
Yost pointed out that the Wolf administration took a lot of criticism at the beginning of the pandemic for some of the decisions they made. He said he thinks that some of that criticism was deserved, but that people must also remember that he was working under circumstances that were highly unusual.
“They were learning as they went,” he said. “Maybe those lessons from the past year have contributed to this new approach.”
Yost said he thinks some politicians may think that letting private companies and organizations issue their own guidance and mandates will get us to where we need to be when it comes to vaccination rates, while also protecting themselves from backlash.
Mensch acknowledged that, unfortunately, everything has become political these days. The lawmaker said he receives emails from constituents on a daily basis that include links to inflammatory YouTube videos featuring people sounding off on a host of issues.
“There is almost never any facts or data presented,” he said.
Still, Mensch said, that anger is not unfounded.
“Wolf made a mistake by looking at the pandemic as only a health issue and ignored the economic impact that it had on people,” he said. “That caused a lot of angst toward the mandates that he issued.”
Schwank said the fact is the administration is in an unenviable position.
“This has become such a political flashpoint and has created real anger that has led some people to lash out at school board meetings or public places that we have never seen before,” she said. “It’s walking a tightrope.
“But I think if the situation evolves and things get much worse I think the administration will step up their efforts despite the political fallout. And I would support them on that.”
Focus has shifted
MediaNews Group reached out to the governor’s office to ask why Wolf has shifted his approach away from statewide mandates and orders.
A response from Lyndsay Kensinger, Wolf’s press secretary, said the governor is currently focused on other methods of fighting the pandemic.
“The administration’s top focus is ensuring Pennsylvanians have access to the COVID-19 vaccine, as we know that is our best mitigation strategy in containing the spread of the virus,” she said. “While capacity restrictions in businesses and restaurants were part of our mitigation strategy early in the pandemic, Pennsylvania is in a very different situation than a year ago. With the best and most important defense against the pandemic at our fingertips, we need Pennsylvanians to get vaccinated to protect themselves and loved ones who are unable to get vaccinated.”
Kensinger said Pennsylvania remains a leader in vaccinations, ranking ninth among all 50 states for first doses administered and more than 65% of Pennsylvanians aged 18 and older fully vaccinated.
“By continuing to follow the science and staying strategically focused on our vaccination efforts, we are ensuring that the commonwealth is best situated to stop the spread of the virus and keep hospital systems from becoming overwhelmed with hospitalizations and deaths associated with COVID-19,” she said.
She added that the administration remains steadfast in its strong recommendations to school districts, businesses and local authorities to adopt CDC guidance that recommends universal masking in counties identified with a high or substantial rate of transmission.
“We applaud the many businesses, local authorities, and school districts that have adopted these various safety recommendations,” she wrote. “The administration will continue to advise the public on CDC’s recommendations and the federal government’s mandates, while continuing to encourage all eligible individuals to get fully vaccinated.”
Schwank said she supports this latest approach.
“There are so many different situations within the commonwealth in terms of how receptive communities are to mandates and the rate of transmission,” she said. “I think the idea is that we need to leave it up to local elected leaders to make those decisions.
“Besides, putting restrictions in place would make all those who have done everything right suffer as well.”
Schwank said elected officials are learning as they go when it comes to this public health crisis and that can be difficult for some people to understand. So changing course should not be seen as flip-flopping, it should be looked at as evolution.
Mensch summed up his thoughts on COVID mandates simply: “We’re not going to get rid of this with restrictions. “We’re going to get rid of it with vaccines.”