Negative birthrates are threat
There are dreamers, there are leaders, and then there are visionaries — the rarified few who don’t just change things, but create them. These are the people with the gift of foresight — the ability to see the future and innately know their role in shaping that brave new world.
Elon Musk is just such a man. Mr. Musk puts ideas into action, from reaching for the heavens (SpaceX), to tunneling through the Earth (The Boring Company), to paving an entirely new road for clean-energy automobiles (Tesla).
Given his track record of unparalleled success, common sense dictates that when Elon Musk makes pronouncements, we should pay attention. Very close attention.
During the Wall Street Journal’s recent CEO Council Summit, Mr. Musk stated: “I can’t emphasize this enough…there are not enough people. And I think one of the biggest risks to civilization is the low birth rate and the rapidly declining birth rate.”
Ominously, he added: “So many people, including smart people, think that there are too many people in the world and the population is growing out of control. It’s completely the opposite…Please, look at the numbers. If people don’t have more children, civilization is going to crumble. Mark my words.” So noted, Mr. Musk. So noted. In 2020, births in America plummeted four percent over 2019 — another record low. And while it would be convenient to blame the pandemic, that wasn’t the reason, since the U.S. birth rate has been continuously declining. As it stands, the fertility rate among childbearing women is 1.6 (1,600 births for every 1,000 women), far below the 2.1 level necessary for the population simply to remain steady.
In Western countries with the lowest birth rates, incompetent governance over the decades has led to despair, lack of quality jobs (and people to fill them), and skyrocketing taxes. Many productive workers have left for greener pastures. Those who remain, from retirees to those unwilling to start a family (thus no future workers), cannot afford the escalating pension obligations and other costs that always accompany the promise of guaranteed social programs.
Now, the economies of many debt-ridden Western nations are hanging by a thread (vastly overinflated stock markets notwithstanding) — tragedies of their own making because of ill-advised cultural, economic and political decisions.
Countries can take a hard look at their anti-family policies and correct them. And if dynamic world leaders, such as like Elon Musk (six children) and Prince William and Duchess Kate (three) lead by example and make having children a priority — as they have — the situation can be reversed. But both must go hand-in-hand, as neither one by itself can be successful.
And it’s no easy task, as there are many reasons for negative birthrates.
While not apologizing for capitalism, since it is the fairest economic system on Earth, it is inarguable that too many in the West have succumbed to materialistic gluttony, coupled with “it’s all about me” and “do whatever makes you feel good” attitudes.
Such mentalities are anathema to getting married, having children, and being diligent parents, for it is much easier to go with the flow without the commitment and cost — a.k.a. the “baggage” — of children.
Healthy populations in Western nations will produce more than they consume — a rising tide that lifts all boats. But it’s not just lost productivity that is a casualty of negative birthrates, but the loss of those who will never exist: brilliant scientists who will never find a cure for cancer or discover other planets; teachers who will never inspire their students to believe that the sky’s the limit; doctors who will never comfort and cure their patients; and artists who will never leave their audiences breathless, searching for words to describe out-of-this-world performances that bring out the humanity in all of us.
It is inevitable that nationalistic spirit dies when a country experiences population decline. While “nationalism” has unfortunately become a dirty word for some, it is nonetheless necessary for the cohesiveness of a people. In the same way that the Olympics bring out the very best in folks, where love of country and pride in one’s national identity makes for peaceful rivalry, hearty camaraderie and great sportsmanship, nationalism on a political scale drives the engine of innovation, creation and competition.
But as that spirit of optimism disintegrates, a new threat rises in the East, as enemies sworn to oppose freedom are going forth and multiplying, menacing what is left of the West. To combat that threat, one can only hope that smarter leaders will emerge to unshackle the bonds holding population growth hostage — and spawn a new age of ideas, innovation, and the iron will to see them through.
Our way of life, and indeed our future, depends on it.