White House response to Putin’s invasion falls short
Remember the uproar last month when President Joe Biden declared that the U.S. response to a Russian invasion of Ukraine would depend on whether it was a “minor incursion”? Critics rightly pointed out that Biden had effectively given Russian President Vladimir Putin a greenlight to invade eastern Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky quickly rebuked Biden, tweeting, “There are no minor incursions.” Biden had to quickly backtrack, declaring the next day that “any — any — assembled Russian units move across the Ukrainian border, that is an invasion.”
Well, on Monday Putin sent assembled Russian units across the border into eastern Ukraine. And what was the Biden administration’s immediate reaction? To excuse Putin’s actions and downplay them as nothing more than a minor incursion.
In his address to the nation Tuesday afternoon, Biden finally acknowledged that “this is the beginning of a Russian invasion.” Before then, The Washington Post reported that Putin’s actions had forced the administration “into an uneasy dilemma about whether that constituted an invasion.” Worse, they actually made excuses for Putin, saying that his incursion was no big deal. A senior administration official told reporters Monday, “Russian troops moving into Donbas would not itself be a new step. Russia has had forces in the Donbas for the past eight years.” The only change, this official said, was that “Russia now looks like it’s going to be operating openly in that region.”
Then, after belatedly acknowledging an invasion was underway, Biden failed to respond with the crippling sanctions he had promised. In his address, Biden announced personal sanctions on Russian elites and their family members, as well as some limited sanctions on two Russian banks. But he failed to announce any sanctions targeting Russia’s two most significant exports — oil and natural gas. Why? Because Germany now gets more than half of its natural gas imports from Russia, while the rest of the European Union depends on Russia for about 40%. And because Biden knows that oil and gas sanctions could impact energy prices in the United States as well.
Indeed, while Biden failed to announce energy sanctions, he delivered an extended soliloquy on his determination to blunt the impact of sanctions on energy prices here at home. “As we respond, my administration is using every tool at our disposal to protect American businesses and consumers from rising prices at the pump,” Biden said. “I am going to take robust action to make sure that the pain of our sanctions is targeted at the Russian economy, not ours.” What kind of message of resolve is that? What Putin hears is that Biden is afraid to impose crippling energy sanctions because he does not want to be held responsible for driving gas prices up even further just months before the midterm elections. That will only embolden the Russian leader.
Worse still, Biden failed to deliver on his promise, made last week at a news conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, to “end” the Nord Stream 2 pipeline if Russia invaded Ukraine.
Well, Russia just did what Biden said — sending its forces across Ukraine’s border. So, is Nord Stream 2 ended? No. On Tuesday, Scholz announced that he was halting the certification of the pipeline, so he could “reevaluate this situation, in view of the latest developments.” Halting and re-evaluating Nord Stream 2 is very different from ending it. In his speech Tuesday, Biden said that “we’ve worked with Germany to ensure Nord Stream 2 will not, as I promised, will not move forward.” He did not say “there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2.”
How does all this come across to Putin? As weakness. Putin has long believed Biden is bluffing when he threatens serious consequences — just like he correctly assessed that the ObamaBiden administration was bluffing in 2014 when it warned of repercussions if Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea.
So far, he has been proved right. If Biden does not immediately reimpose sanctions on Nord Stream 2 — killing the project once and for all — and place crippling sanctions on Russia’s energy and banking sectors, then American credibility will be shattered beyond recovery.