Has Biden’s presidency been transformed by war?

Russia’s war on Ukraine comes at a moment of political weakness for President Joe Biden. His job approval rating is low enough to drag down his party’s chances in the midterms, Americans are angry watching their standard of living diminished by inflation, there is lingering frustration about the president’s handling of COVID-19, and there are widespread doubts whether the 79-year-old Biden is physically and mentally up to the job.

But the war has lent a new look to this presidency. “A presidency transformed,” was the headline of Politico Playbook recently.

If any presidency needed a new arc, it is Biden’s. But it seems unlikely to significantly change his political fortunes for one reason: The president’s job approval rating is low is because he is not doing a good job. The polls reflect a fundamental deficiency in his performance. Yes, Biden is old and slowing down. But Biden in his prime would not have been a good president. There is no reason to believe he can suddenly become one now.

Biden’s job approval rating in the last four polls in the RealClearPolitics average of polls was 38%, 39%, 40% and 38%, respectively. That is a reflection of the public’s negative view of how Biden has handled key issues and his presidency, in general.

Start with the economy. In a recent Fox News poll, just 37% of those surveyed said they approved of Biden’s handling of the most important issue in this or most any other year, while 61% disapproved. On handling crime, Biden’s approval rating was 35%, with 59% disapproval. On immigration, the numbers were 34% approve, 62% disapprove. On uniting the country, 38% approve, 58% disapprove. And on handling COVID — which used to be Biden’s strength — the numbers were 47% approve, 51% disapprove.

Now Biden is handling the crisis in Ukraine, and the public has doubts about that, too. A Suffolk poll found that 35% approved of Biden’s handling of Ukraine, versus 49% who disapproved and 17% who don’t know.

The issue ratings are subsets of the larger question of Biden’s leadership. A recent Washington Post poll asked two key questions about that. The first was: “Do you think Biden is a strong leader, or not?” The poll found 59%said no, they do not think Biden is a strong leader, while 36% said he is one. Even 1 in 5 Democrats said Biden is not a strong leader. A whopping 65% of independents agreed.

Then the Post asked: “Do you think Biden has the mental sharpness it takes to serve effectively as president, or not?” A majority — 54% — said no. and 40% said he does. Broken down by party, 13% of Democrats said Biden does not have the sharpness, versus 88% of Republicans and 59% of independents. Having 59% of independents doubt the president’s capacity to serve is a serious problem for the White House.

These are fundamental problems with Biden’s presidency that will limit his ability to recover from his current low standing in

the polls.

The one success Biden can count on is the coming Senate confirmation of his Supreme Court nominee, Ketanji Brown Jackson. A Democratic court nominee is one thing Senate Democrats will unite around. So barring some incredible, unforeseen news about the nomination, Biden will win confirmation of his choice. But that is just one small bit of good news in an otherwise bleak landscape.

Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the White House was hoping for some sort of “reboot” for the president’s term, starting with his State of the Union address, to spur action on Biden’s legislative agenda. Now, the Ukraine war has changed the subject. But it has not changed the essential nature of the man in the White House.