We cheer Russia’s military failures, but fear a cornered Putin
Last week was Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s week.
The Ukrainian president taught America and the world the truth of Napoleon’s admonition: “In war, moral is to physical as three is to one.”
Zelenskyy has taken the West with him, emotionally, to the barricades of Kyiv. He evokes the idealism of the popular uprisings that swept Europe in the 19th century and inspired Victor Hugo’s classic novel, “Les Miserables.” We know the rousing chorus of the musical version: “Do you hear the people sing? Singing a song of angry men? It is the music of a people who will not be slaves again!”
But this isn’t a musical. And it would be a mistake not to cast a cold, unsentimental eye at the Ukraine crisis before it damages the world irreparably. Even as we try to support Zelenskyy and his noble fight against President Vladimir Putin, we should understand the dangers ahead.
What are the hidden risks of this moment, beyond the horrifying destruction of Ukraine and its people? Here’s a summary of what I’ve gathered from recent conversations with people who are watching the Ukraine war as closely and rationally as possible:
The longer this war continues, the more dangerous it will become. Russia will bleed out, in the corpses of its invaders and the ruin of its economy. The world will cheer. But as this process continues, a desperate Putin may become more likely to escalate this crisis toward a world war. A combination of military pressure and diplomacy that presses Putin toward a settlement is in everyone’s interest. Compromises will be anguishing, but necessary.
Putin’s military failures have been exhilarating to watch. The bad guy seems to be losing. But we shouldn’t kid ourselves. Putin’s menace increases at home and abroad as he is cornered. It was chilling to watch his rant Wednesday against Russian “scum and traitors” that oppose him. The intelligence services of every rational country on the planet should consider ways to reduce Putin’s unchecked power before he moves from nasty bully to mass murderer.
President Biden and his allies should begin planning for the endgame of this war. Putin doesn’t have a plan, but neither does the West. What’s needed is an architecture of security so that neither Russia nor Ukraine feels threatened. Putin kept telling us for 15 years that there was trouble ahead; he meant it. The genius of the leaders of 1945 was that they built a structure for peace: the United Nations; the World Bank; the International Monetary Fund. The world will be rebuilt after this war; this reconstruction needs Russian and Chinese input or it will fail.
Russia will be in disarray after this war, politically and economically. It will be tempting to let that mess fester, especially if Russia continues to occupy parts of Ukraine. But beware: As bad as Putin has been, there are future versions of Russian despotism that could be even more destabilizing for Europe. A punitive peace after the horrors of World War I spawned the nightmare of Nazi Germany. Russia is in radical decline; we are watching, in effect, the second fall of the Soviet Union. Beware
the dangers as Russia crumbles.
The Ukraine war may be just a rehearsal for a more ruinous conflict to come. That was the case with the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-1905; the world assumed that Russia would sweep to a quick victory, but its poor performance prefigured the fall of the czarist monarchy and was in many ways a prelude to World War I. Many of the most hideous features of 1914 had a trial run in 1905.
Diplomacy may seem irrelevant at a moment when Russian bombs are falling on Ukrainian maternity hospitals and opera houses. Zelenskyy needs more weapons to fight back against a tyrant — and pressure Russia to accept a cease-fire. But Zelenskyy’s allies should also be thinking about how to put the pieces back together when this war ends.