Redistrict
House Democrat, said there is a feeling among his caucus that Republicans have not run the chamber fairly.
“If we’re in the majority it’s going to be a narrow margin, and depending on who wins governor, we’re going to try to govern and try to get compromise,” Briggs said. “It’s going to be a challenge in itself, because there are going to be folks who want payback. We’ve got to do what’s best for Pennsylvania.”
“To be perfectly honest, this is a tough time,” said seven-term Rep. Sheryl Delozier, R-Cumberland, after spending several days knocking on doors in a suburban Harrisburg district that underwent significant changes in reapportionment. “People are afraid they’re signing a fraudulent something-or-the-other.”
The launch of petition gathering has been accompanied by a new wave of retirement announcements — at least 22 Republicans and seven Democrats in the House are not seeking another term. Five state senators, four Republicans and an independent who caucuses with the GOP, are also bowing out.
It’s a large number of departures to hit the 203-member House with a couple of months to go before
the first votes are cast.
Rep. Andrew Lewis, a second-term Republican from Dauphin County, got drawn into a district with a fellow Republican, Rep. Sue Helm. Neither are seeking reelection in the newly Democratic-leaning district.
“In all reality, it’s because I’ve analyzed every precinct of that district and statistically, I think it’s impossible for a Republican to win there,” Lewis said.
After several redistricting cycles in which Republicans had control, this year the process was more favorable to Democrats. The fifth and tie-breaking member of the Legislative Reapportionment Commission was a Democrat chosen by the Democratic-majority state Supreme Court, and population growth has been concentrated in the Democratic southeast.
Republicans have a 11390 majority in the House, although three of those seats are vacant from resignations and will be filled in an April 5 special election: Allegheny County Democratic seats that became open when Rep. Ed Gainey was elected mayor and named Rep. Jake Wheatley a top staffer, and a Luzerne County seat available since Republican Rep. Tarah Toohil won a judicial race.
Trevor Southerland, executive director of the House Democratic Campaign Committee, figures more
than two dozen House GOP members currently represent districts in which at least 45% of voters supported either Joe Biden or Josh Shapiro, the Democratic attorney general who is unopposed for his party’s gubernatorial nomination this year. Along with the slew of Republican retirements, he believes Democrats have an array of potential targets.
“It puts the chamber in play,” Southerland said. “The new maps don’t guarantee us a majority by any means, but what they do is they give us an opportunity. Which, in a swing state, is what we ought to have.”
Southerland sees a path for two additional Democratic seats in the Harrisburg area and potential pickups in the Philadelphia suburbs, Poconos and the State College area.
But in both 2016 and 2020 the state was evenly divided in presidential contests, and this year state House Democrats will be playing defense in at least four swing districts where longserving incumbents are retiring. Reps. Mike Carroll and Gerald Mullery in Luzerne County, Rep. Pam Snyder in Greene County and Rep. Mark Longietti in Mercer County are all leaving areas with solid Republican vote performance.
Although all five retirements among the 25 Senate seats up this year are
Republicans — including state Sen. Bob Mensch, who has represented the 24th since 2009 and plans to retire at the end of his current term — Senate GOP campaign chair Sen. David Argall of Schuylkill County said he’s encouraged by the crop of candidates that has emerged.
He is counting on anger over gas prices and other national political trends to help.
“I think there’s also a serious case of Tom Wolf fatigue,” Argall said, referring to the state’s two-term Democratic governor, now in his final year in office. “So it’s not just the national issues.”
Pennsylvania has had a Democratic governor and Republican Legislature for 16 of the past 20 years, and voters may well split power between them again.