Another busy hurricane season predicted for 2022

After two years of alphabet-depleting hurricane seasons, 2022 looks to be more of the same, according to predictions from weather site AccuWeather.

In its early season predictions released Wednesday, the site expects to see 16 to 20 named tropical systems. That is just shy of last year’s 21 names and much lower than 2020 s record 30 named systems, but still above average.

AccuWeather also predicted six to eight hurricanes, of which three to five will be labeled major hurricanes with sustained Category 3 strength winds of 111 mph or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. It also predicts that four to six hurricanes will make an impact on the U.S.

AccuWeather is one of many tentpoles for meteorological prediction for the official season that runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is not expected to release its official season forecast until mid-May. The Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project is scheduled to release its initial season prediction on April 7.

Last year saw seven hurricanes, of which four were major, and eight had a direct impact on the U.S.

The site notes hurricane activity, while slightly lower, continues a trend of more system development since 2015, the last year hurricane activity was below average. An average year will see 14 named systems, from which there would be seven hurricanes, three of which would be major. The average year also sees 3.5 systems with a direct impact on the U.S.

While the official start of hurricane season is not until June 1, the site says 2022 has a high chance for a preseason storm to develop. Storms have formed in May in each of the previous six years, and even an April system in 2017.

A system is named when it has rotation and sustained winds that surpass 39 mph, labeled as a tropical or subtropical storm, depending on where it forms. It isn’t named a hurricane until sustained winds surpass 74 mph. Tropical waves and low-pressure systems often form into tropical depressions before reaching tropical-storm status.