TRICKY RIDE
Rain followed by sudden drop in temperature could result in icy roads
There is good and bad news for the millions who will be taking to the roads and skies over the holidays, with gas prices at their lowest level in 18 months, but the coldest Christmas forecast in decades is expected to chill travelers, possibly disrupt flights and likely bring icy roads to the region today.
Those who are going to be out and about in the coming days should bundle up first and check the latest forecasts before departing because there could be a number of hazardous and disruptive weather impacts in the Northeast in the days leading up to Christmas, AccuWeather meteorologists said.
About an inch of rain is expected, with an additional quarter-inch and wind gusts of 47 mph, forecasters said.
Any rain or snow that falls before the start of the holiday weekend is at risk of rapidly freezing — possibly within minutes — and bringing treacherous conditions for traveling and walking, AccuWeather said.
The 24-hour temperature drop from Friday to Saturday could rival records, meteorologists said.
“In Harrisburg, that temperature drop could be 45 degrees or more,” AccuWeather Senior Weather Editor Jesse Ferrell said. “The record (for greatest temperature dip within 24 hours) is 48 degrees set in both 1981 and 1978.”
It is possible some neighborhoods may face extended power outages through the Christmas weekend, and some homes could lose their primary source of heat, as crews may struggle to restore all downed power lines in a timely manner because of the anticipated extreme conditions, AccuWeather said.
The weather forecast for the region is for rain mixed with some snow, then temperatures Friday to reach 50 before plummeting to 9 with heavy winds, according to AccuWeather.
The cold temperatures should stick around for a few days, with Christmas being dry but with a high of only 25 degrees.
Beginning Tuesday a slight warmup should start, with temperatures nearing 50 again by New Year’s Day.
Cold weather tips
Whether traveling or staying home for Christmas, people should be careful in the bitter cold on its way, said Dr. Blake Bailey, Vice Chair of Reading Hospital’s Department of Emergency Medicine.
Frostbite is a serious threat to those who spend too much time outdoors or aren’t properly dressed for such temperatures, he said, and each year the emergency department treats such cases.
Those who are driving should get ready for the possibility of their vehicle breaking down or getting stuck in bad weather by having blankets and warm clothing on hand, he said.
“You should be preparing for the worst,” he said. “You never know what might happen.”
And as winter progresses and snow arrives, everyone should be careful not to overdo it when shoveling, and be cautious around snowblowers, he said.
Each year the hospital treats people who experience heart problems while shoveling snow, and some who injure their fingers and hands trying to unclog snow from the blades of snowblowers, he said.
Older people should be especially careful in the cold and snow, since they are most prone to experience health problems in the winter, he said.
“Make sure you dress in layers, and don’t be out too long without warming up,” he said.
At the pump
Close to 113 million people will journey 50 miles or more from home between Friday and Jan. 2, an increase of 3.6 million people from last year and closing in on pre-pandemic numbers, according to AAA.
This year is expected to be the third busiest year for holiday travel since AAA began tracking in 2000.
“This year travel time will be extended due to Christmas Day and New Year’s Day falling on Sundays,” said Paula Twidale, AAA senior vice president of travel. “With hybrid work schedules, we are seeing more people take long weekends to travel because they can work remotely at their destination and be more flexible with the days they depart and return.”
The nearly 102 million expected to drive to their holiday destinations will get a break at the pumps with the national average for a gallon of regular gas at $3.11 on Wednesday, according to AAA, down almost $2 since the all-time high of just over $5 in June and now at its lowest level since the summer of 2021.
GasBuddy predicts the national average will be $2.98 on Christmas Day, having fallen in all 50 states since October.
In Pennsylvania, the average was $3.64 on Wednesday, with Berks County a nickel lower at $3.59.
In Montgomery County the average was $3.50, in Delaware County it was $3.48, in Chester County it was $3.47, in Lehigh County it was $3.49 and in Schuylkill County it was $3.60.
“Finally, things are starting to feel a bit more normal with gas prices far more affordable,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a press release. “Americans are saving around $25 per fillup compared to prices this summer.
“While we’re closing out the year on a positive note, challenges remain that could drive prices up again next spring, so motorists might want to keep their expectations in check and enjoy the sub-$3 gasoline while they can.”
The federal Energy Information Administration said gasoline demand remains lower than it was at the same time in 2021, which contributes to lower prices. Also, U.S. gasoline inventories have bounced back, which has helped bring prices down, said EIA spokesman Chris Higginbotham.
While the agency’s latest forecast in early December predicted gas prices would bottom at $3.33 in January, underestimating how far they’ve fallen, there are also other uncertainties, with European Union sanctions of Russian crude oil imports having the potential to raise petroleum product prices globally, Higginbotham said.
Traveling
Air travel will see a 14% increase this holiday over last year, with nearly 7.2 million Americans expected to fly, AAA said.
Flights and airports will be packed to a point reminiscent of pre-pandemic days despite higher airline ticket prices, said AAA, which expects the number of people taking holiday flights this year to come close to matching 2019 when 7.3 million Americans traveled by air.
Other modes of transportation are also rebounding, said AAA, estimating that travel by bus, rail, and cruise ship will rise to 3.6 million this holiday season, a 23% increase from last year and nearly 94% of 2019’s pre-pandemic volume.
Transportation analytics firm INRIX expects the most congested days on the road to be Friday, Christmas, Dec. 27 and 28, and Jan. 2, with increased travel times likely those days.
What could delay transportation schedules even more, though, are winter storms that have already canceled some flights.
On Tuesday in Seattle a winter storm caused at least 192 flight cancellations, according to The Associated Press.
Airlines offered travelers the option of choosing new flights to avoid the bad weather. Delta, American, United and Southwest waived change fees at airports that might be affected, but consumers need to read the fine print carefully.
Delta, for example, is waiving any difference in fares for rebooked travel that happens before Dec. 25 for flights out of the Pacific Northwest, but if the flights are rebooked to a date after Sunday, passengers may have to pay the fare difference.
The Transportation Security Administration expects Dec. 22 and Dec. 30 to be the busiest days at U.S. airports.
The urge to travel and visit family and friends over the holidays appeared to outweigh concerns about illness, the AP said.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said coronavirus cases and deaths have increased in recent weeks, and the trio of COVID-19, seasonal flu and respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, continues to stress the health care system.
Inflation, too, didn’t seem to be cutting into holiday travel demand, even with the average roundtrip airfare having risen 22% to $397 in the second quarter of this year — the most recent period available — according to the AP.