Colorado could be undefeated, boxed out of title game

The Pac-12 is on the verge of a Colorado conundrum. It would be a good conundrum to have — the result of unexpected success and a competitive division race. Nor is it guaranteed to unfold. But it could become quite real over the course of 24 hours this weekend.

If Colorado beats Utah on Friday, the Buffaloes would finish with an undefeated conference record in the portion of the regular season that determines the Pac-12 division winners.

But if USC beats UCLA on Saturday, the Buffaloes would have no chance to actually win their division. They would be unbeaten, boxed out, and victims of circumstances beyond their control.

Colorado would be 4- 0 in conference play and tied with the Trojans (5- 0) based on the process for determining the division champions.

In that scenario:

• The first tiebreaker, headto-head result, would not apply because of the canceled Nov. 28 matchup in the Coliseum. (USC didn’t have enough eligible players at a specific position group.)

• The second tiebreaker is division record. The Trojans would be 4- 0 against teams in the South; the Buffaloes would be 3- 0.

The difference: Colorado had two games canceled — both because of COVID issues with their opponents (USC and ASU) — while the Trojans only had one game wiped out: The head-to-head against Colorado. USC would be declared the division winner and advance to

the conference championship.

The Buffaloes would be left to stew. (The teams would also tie for the division if both lose this weekend.)

But the unfortunate optics wouldn’t end there for the conference, because the North champion would have at least one loss. USC’s opponent on Dec. 18 would be either 4-1 Washington or 4-2 Oregon. Yep, undefeated Colorado could be sitting home while two-loss Oregon plays for the title.

“They need to reconsider that,” said Rick Neuheisel, a former Pac-12 coach (Colorado, UCLA and Washington) who works as an analyst for CBS Sports. “If Washington’s 4-1, then let them play. It wouldn’t be fair to keep a one-loss team out. But if the team from the North doesn’t have one loss, then to me, they should let Colorado play for it.”

Messy situations with schedule models, tiebreaker formulas, conference policies and championshipgame eligibility aren’t exclusive to the Pac-12.

For reasons known only to itself, the Big Ten established a six-game minimum for inclusion in the conference championship. Now it might be forced to amend the policy in order to make room for unbeaten Ohio State.

Meanwhile, the ACC gamed its own system to create the clearest paths

for Clemson and Notre Dame to both reach the College Football Playoff — a move that wasn’t well-received elsewhere.

“We saw what they did in the ACC,” Neuheisel said. “It’s not too late for the Pac12 to change. If they want to give USC the best springboard for getting higher in the rankings, and if they want to be fair to Colorado, then why not let them have a chance, especially when USC is the reason Colorado didn’t have the chance (originally).”

But the Pac-12 — which already changed its policy regarding nonconference games — has no plans to adjust the protocol and allow undefeated Colorado a berth in the championship.

Per a statement issued to the Hotline on Monday:

“Prior to the start of the

football season, the Pac-12 Conference established a 2020 schedule and related tie-breaking protocol. The schedule and tie-breaking protocol were developed in consultation with, and approved by, Pac-12 athletic directors. We are following this agreed upon schedule and tie-breaking protocol.”

The Hotline reached out to Colorado athletic director Rick George, who offered the following reaction:

“We’re excited to play Utah, and I strongly disagree with the conference’s decision.”

One option, no longer feasible, was to switch this week’s games: Match Colorado against USC in a makeup date in the Coliseum and have their opponents, Utah and UCLA, square off in the Rose Bowl.

But the Pac-12’s media partner put the kibosh on that option: ESPN announced last weekend that the USC-UCLA game will be televised Saturday in primetime by ABC. Chances of the conference pushing back against that plan: less than zero.

The other option — again, assuming Colorado and USC win this week — would be to change the policy for determining the participants. Instead of advancing the division winners, the championship game would match the teams with the best winning percentage.

Based on the statement from HQ, that’s not happening by vote or decree from on high.

However, the established protocol for determining the participants

includes an exception:

“In the event that the average number of conference games falls to 4 or below, the two teams with the best winning percentage (both divisional and cross-divisional) within the conference will participate in the Pac- 12 Football Championship Game (regardless of division affiliation).”

So Colorado needs a spate of cancellations this week — a net loss of at least three games, per our calculations — in order for the average number of games played to drop and the exception to kick in.

At that point, the North winner would be left home while the undefeated Buffaloes and Trojans square off.

What a predicament. What a season.