Hope for the best, but bet on the worst out of Warriors this year
The problem with being a gambling man is that you’re asked a lot of gambling problems. And the question that I have been asked the most over the last few days regards the Warriors’ win total on the season.
The Warriors’ over-under is set at 39.5 wins (in a 72game season). So ... What’s the play?
It’s a strong line, no doubt, but I think the play is obvious.
Warriors fans: Hope for the best, but expect — and bet — the worst- case scenario. Don’t get me wrong, the ceiling for this squad is still high. Not as high as it was with Kevin Durant in blue and gold, but high.
A fully-actualized Warriors squad — one with Stephen Curry playing at an MVP level, an engaged Draymond Green playing like he’s three years younger, a Kelly Oubre that is fully bought into the Warriors’ system, an Andrew Wiggins that plays with an edge, a James Wiseman that makes an im
mediate impact on both sides of the court, and a steady, reliable bench — is capable of winning 45-to50 regular-season games out of 72.
I think they could be even more dangerous in the playoffs. Are you betting against Curry and Green’s championship pedigree? We don’t talk about it enough, but what about Steve Kerr’s?
If everything goes right, the Warriors could be playing deep into June. If the Lakers sputter or the Clippers complete their implosion, the Warriors might play in July. It’s nice to imagine this optimistic scenario, no doubt.
But, forgive the pessimist for asking: When has everything ever gone right?
There’s less margin for error in a 72-game season, and that’s not even factoring in the high likelihood that many — if not all — teams are going to struggle to reach that 72-game mark. With the pandemic still raging and so much movement around the country, there should be
plenty of skepticism about the start (at least) of the NBA season.
And one positive COVID test to a key player could be a critical blow to the Warriors.
In fact, COVID has already put the Warriors behind schedule. Neither Wiseman nor Green has been able to practice yet in training camp — a camp that the Warriors are prioritizing defense. No offense to Eric Paschall, but not having Green around to practice this team’s defense is like trying to work on the offense without Curry in the fold: You just can’t replicate that impact with a backup. Not having Wiseman — the No. 2 overall
pick who is being asked to, at the very least, protect the rim this year — is tough sledding, too.
Every game counts on a season total bet. I expect a slow start for the Warriors — one that would make an over play a nailbiter.
The NBA is cramming even more games than usual onto the schedule. If they are all played, it’s fair to think that injuries will increase around the league — especially with a team like the Warriors that hasn’t played in nearly a year.
And if Curry goes down for a week, even two, with an ankle injury, the under would be the play. If Curry doesn’t play at an
MVP level, this team will struggle to reach that win total. We don’t even know how often Curry will rest. That has to be taken into consideration, too, as the Warriors have seven backto-backs in the first half of the schedule.
Sorry to say it, but despite some nice offseason moves and an awesome financial commitment from ownership, the floor is only slightly higher for this team than it was last season, when the Warriors had the worst record in the NBA. Without Curry, without Green, without either Wiggins or Oubre — and only one of those fates needs to come to pass for a 10-game stretch — the Warriors are a team that will be struggling to make the play-in tournament in a ruthless Western Conference.
Let’s not explore worse but totally plausible scenarios. Feel free to bet the over, Warriors fans. Put your money where your mouth is and set yourself up for a double win — both emotional and financial.
But just remember: Betting is a probability game. And from where I sit, there are so many more ways this can go under than over.