Three teams locks; nine have steep climbs to make tournament

Arizona’s narrow loss at Tennessee on Wednesday evening was the last highprofile, nonconference matchup for the Pac12 before round-robin league play ramps up next week.

The numbers, for your consumption: • Against AP top-25 opponents, the Pac-12 is 2-11.

• Against Power Six opponents, it’s 7-15.

• Against the West Coast Conference, it’s 6-6.

By any measure, the past six weeks have been underwhelming for all but three teams.

As the data below suggests, Arizona, USC and UCLA are locks for the NCAA Tournament.

Everyone else is either on the outskirts of the bubble or nowhere near the bubble.

For those unfamiliar with the NET rankings cited below (or in need of a reminder):

The result of each game played falls within one of four quadrants, based on the NET ranking of the opponent and location of the game. The categorization changes over time as teams move up and down the NET.

Home vs. Nos. 1-30, Neutral vs. Nos. 1-50, Away vs. Nos. 1-75

Home 31-75, Neutral 51100, Away 76-135

Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240

Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

For example: UCLA’S victory at home over No. 12 Villanova counts as a Quadrant I win for the Bruins. Essentially, teams want to load up on Quad I and II wins and avoid Quad III and IV losses.

In order of NET ranking:

Arizona

NET Ranking: Record vs. Quad I and II: Record vs. Quad II and IV: NCAA projection: Comment:

USC

NET Ranking: Record vs. Quad I and II: Record vs. Quad II, IV: NCAA projection: Comment:

UCLA

NET Ranking: Record vs. Quad I and II: Record vs. Quad II and IV: NCAA projection: Comment:

Washington State

NET Ranking: Record vs. Quad I and II:

Record vs. Quad II and IV: NCAA projection: Comment:

Record vs. Quad I and II: Record vs. Quad II and IV: NCAA projection: Comment:

Arizona State

NET Ranking: Record vs. Quad I and II: Record vs. Quad II and IV: NCAA projection: Comment: