Ohtani vs. Judge closing arguments and the other MLB awards races

I cannot remember a baseball awards race debated so fiercely and stubbornly by its adherents quite like the Shohei Ohtani/aaron Judge duel for the 2022 American League Most Valuable Player Award.

Can we give one of them the National League MVP award, just this one time?

Three weeks ago, I tried to capture the essential arguments on both sides. Judge has since surpassed Roger Maris’ AL home run record. The New York Yankees’ slugger will finish the season a few hundredths of a point shy of the batting average title he needs to win a triple crown. Of the 15 AL batting seasons with a higher adjusted OPS+ than Judge, eight belong to Babe Ruth and four belong to Ted Williams.

To eclipse Judge’s value in the eyes of voters, Ohtani faces a tall task by 2022 standards. The Angels’ two-way star must overcome the math provided by every version of Wins Above Replacement, all of which favor Judge. Or does he?

An astute reader emailed me a couple of weeks ago to point out a possible shortcoming of WAR, and virtually every other counting stat we have: it doesn’t fully account for the fact that Ohtani effectively played 181 regular-season games in 2022 (153 as a DH, 28 as a pitcher).

Combine the nearly 700 times Ohtani stood in a batter’s box with the nearly 700 batters he faced on the mound, and you start to get an idea of the fullness of that workload. It’s roughly twice that of a full-time one-way player — something Ohtani couldn’t say during his 2021 MVP campaign, when he “only” pitched to 533 batters.

This reader contended that the statistical framework for Total Runs (a stat introduced in 2009) is better at capturing the value associated with Ohtani’s full workload. The Fielding Bible website breaks down how Ohtani derived his league-leading 199 Total Runs. The reader argued (with spreadsheets!) that Ohtani’s value is closer to Barry Bonds’ historic 2002 season than Judge’s 2022 season.

I’ll spare you the math. My impression is that most fans have been dead-set on a winner for weeks, ready to fight to the death on behalf of Their Guy. My main takeaway is not that Ohtani should win this award over Judge, but that we’re witnessing two of the best seasons ever. They just happen to be taking place in the same year, in the same league. Maybe the real AL MVP is the enemies we made along the way.

Here’s my breakdown of the other postseason awards races, excluding the NL Cy Young, for which I hold a vote.

NL MVP

There is no favorite in this race anymore — not even a pair of favorites, like in the AL — so long as voters did not make up their minds weeks ago, when St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt appeared to be running away with the award.

Goldschmidt, like teammate Nolan Arenado and the Dodgers’ Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, have seen their chances slip away as their bats fell quiet into autumn. The main benefactor has been Padres third baseman Manny Machado, alone in the San Diego spotlight following the suspension of Fernando Tatís Jr.

The best players in the National League this season all play for the best teams; the trade of Juan Soto to the Padres made that obvious. But it isn’t clear who the MVP of the Cardinals, the Dodgers, the Atlanta Braves, or the New York Mets is. Machado doesn’t have that problem, which could be enough to tip the voting in his favor. AL Cy Young

The award will likely go to the Houston Astros’ Justin Verlander, the Chicago White Sox’s Dylan Cease or Ohtani. Each leads one of the publicly available versions of WAR/WARP.

Verlander has a longer track record of success than almost any active starting pitcher, and is authoring a cool comeback story from Tommy John surgery. Arguably only two pitchers older than 30 at the time of their surgery —

John himself, and Hall of Famer John Smoltz — have bounced back stronger after having an elbow ligament replaced. That helps his case.

Strictly by the numbers, this three-horse race is a toss-up. Ohtani has been the most dominant at his peak, able to summon a strikeout almost at will but preferring to focus on eliciting soft contact to elongate each start. Cease has thrown the most innings of the three, and he has consistently had one of the best ERAS despite pitching in front of one of baseball’s worst team defenses. Verlander’s Deserved Runs Average suggests he’s gotten more help from his defense than some pitchers, but not enough to disqualify him from winning the award.

At 39, he’ll also lead the AL in wins (18) and ERA (1.75), and that will probably matter more than it should.

AL ROOKIE

There are two frontrunners to be chosen for the top rookie in each league: one obvious pick, and one hipster pick. Each race is a matter of taste. Do any voters blast Neutral Milk Hotel and sip $6 coffee while driving their Saab?

In the AL, the obvious choice is Seattle Mariners center fielder Julio Rodriguez. He leads all rookies in home runs and RBIS and is second only to Kansas City shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. in stolen bases. At 21 years old, he played a critical role in ending the Mariners’ record 21-year playoff drought.

The less obvious pick is Baltimore Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman. The 24-year-old batted .256 with an .814 OPS while holding his own among the game’s best defensive catchers. The Orioles’ pitching staff jumped from 15th to ninth in both ERA and FIP compared to 2021. A more telling stat: Baltimore went 52-38 when Rutschman started at catcher and 31-41 when he didn’t.

NL ROOKIE

No NL rookie has more home runs (19), RBIS (64) or runs scored (75) than Atlanta Braves outfielder Michael Harris II. He is second among NL rookies in stolen bases and tied for eighth among all center fielders in Outs Above Average. Harris, 21, grew up just outside Atlanta and had never played a game above High-a before this season. There is no shame if, like me, you had never heard of him before he was promoted from Double-a in May.

The hipster pick isn’t subtle in his brilliance, but Spencer Strider’s mustache channels the ghost of Old Hoss Radbourn as much as his right arm. Strider was arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball on a per-inning basis for the Braves. His stats (2.67 ERA, 1.88 FIP, 0.99 WHIP) speak volumes, even if his innings total (131-2/3) disqualified him from the mainstream leaderboards.

AL MANAGER

Terry Francona has won the award twice, and he might have the inside track to win another. The Cleveland Guardians’ record was above .500 when he stepped away for health reasons in July 2021, and below .500 thereafter. This season the Guardians were the surprise firstplace team in the AL Central with Francona on the bench from start to finish.

Baltimore’s Brandon Hyde could receive even more voter support in proportion to the Orioles’ oneyear turnaround, although his team missed the postseason. Three-time MOY Dusty Baker guided the Astros to the American League’s best record. They will try to unseat Tampa Bay Rays manager Kevin Cash, who has won the award the last two seasons.

NL MANAGER

Rob Thomson became the Philadelphia Phillies’ manager when Joe Girardi was fired on June 3, guided the team to a 14-2 record out of the gate, grabbed a wild-card berth and never looked back. If managing only 109 games doesn’t disqualify him in the eyes of voters, Thomson is the obvious choice.

If not, this would be a good year to end Dave Roberts’ streak of being snubbed for his role in the Dodgers’ annual success. No team in Brooklyn or Los Angeles had ever won 111 games before this season. Oliver Marmol has drawn rave reviews for his role in the Cardinals’ continued success, while Bob Melvin deserves credit for steering the Padres away from another late-season collapse.