Trump’s trip can start remaking the Middle East

One of Donald Trump’s key goals since becoming president has been to systematically reverse the policies of his predecessor. So it’s no surprise that Trump’s visit this weekend to Saudi Arabia, his first to a foreign country, will signal a break with Barack Obama’s foreign policy in the Middle East.

This is both promising and potentially troubling. On the plus side, Trump has a unique opportunity to reframe America’s engagement with the region, by addressing a set of problems ranging from Israel’s relationship with Arab nations to the Islamist radicalization that began with the Iranian revolution in 1979 and has culminated with the Islamic State caliphate in Iraq and Syria.

But there are also pitfalls to avoid, in particular how America is to confront Iranian regional ambitions and how to get back on a path to resolving the Palestinian-Israeli struggle.

That Riyadh and Jerusalem are the first stops on this trip is clearly Trump’s attempt to distance himself from Obama’s rapprochement with Iran. The previous administration’s calculation here involved creating a balance of power between the regional actors, namely Saudi and Iran, in order to diminish the U.S. military footprint in the region. However, Obama’s strategy -- as seen from the ongoing wars in Iraq, Syria and Yemen and the escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran -- has failed.

Trump, in contrast, has a strong desire to side forcefully with America’s traditional allies, Saudi Arabia and Israel, and has made a point of identifying Iran as the source of instability in the region. Not incorrectly, he sees Iran as having used the cover of the nuclear agreement reached with six major powers in 2015 to increase its influence throughout the region, especially through the use of non-state actors such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, Houthi rebels in Yemen and the Popular Mobilization Units in Iraq. In so doing, Iran has waged stealth war on Sunni Arabs by providing weapons, ideological indoctrination and training to Shiite militias across the entire region.

Trump will be fêted in Riyadh for giving primacy to America’s strategic relationship with the kingdom, and will be hailed as a partner by moderate Muslim states such as Jordan and the United Arab Emirates in the war against extremist radical movements like Sunni Islamic State as well as Shiite Hezbollah.

Sunni jihadists, who are equally at war with Sunni states such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, cannot be defeated without an alliance with the wider Sunni world. The Saudis, for example, have warded off several al-Qaeda attacks against the homeland, and have allowed their territory to be used as a base for U.S. attacks against al-Qaeda and Islamic State. Trump will certainly acknowledge this, and is expected to give a major speech on Islam and the West, with hope of putting to rest his reputation as an Islamophobe.

In return, Saudi Arabia is likely to announce significant investments in infrastructure projects in America (perhaps as much as US $40 billion) and that it will be buying $100 billion or more in U.S. arms. This will be framed as part of the kingdom’s effort to achieve two principal aims: diversifying its economy and investments, and strengthening its military capabilities and ability to protect itself instead of placing the burden on the U.S. Emphasis will be placed on the two countries’ historic economic and political partnership -- the summit’s slogan is “Together We Prevail.”