Analysis: Bourbon War Preakness pick in wide-open race
By Tim Reynolds
The last time that the Preakness was run without the Kentucky Derby winner was 1996, when Grindstone was retired because of knee issues. The last time none of the top four Derby finishers went to the middle jewel of racing’s Triple Crown season was 1951, because none of them were nominated in time.
All that changes on Saturday.
Derby winner Country House is sick and not at the Preakness. Maximum Security, the horse that crossed the line first and was then disqualified, isn’t at the Preakness. Derby runnerup Code of Honor is being pointed to the Dwyer Stakes in July. Derby third-place finisher Tacitus is likely to return in three weeks at the Belmont.
That’s all good and bad news for the Preakness.
The bad news: There’s no Triple Crown winner this year, and intrigue takes an obvious hit without the Derby principals in the field.
The good news: For bettors, this race should be as wide open — if not more so — than the Derby was.
To illustrate how wideopen this race looks, consider that there are some serious and legitimate arguments to be made for Bodexpress to win the Preakness. Bodexpress has never won a race. The last time a maiden won the Preakness was in 1888, yet Bodexpress — second in the Florida Derby to Maximum Security — can’t be thrown out here.
Bodexpress is one of only four horses who is in the Preakness after competing in the Derby. War of Will and Improbable will likely be the top two betting choices at post time, and Win Win Win will be taking plenty of money at the windows as well.
Some of the newcomers, they just seem out of place.
Everfast doesn’t seem to be aptly named; he won his debut race last year and is 0 for 9 since, with his best finish in that stretch being a second at the Holy Bull in February at 129-1 odds. (Yes, 129-1. He was second to Harvey Wallbanger, who stole the race at a mere 30-1 and they teamed up for an $1,100 return on a $1 exacta.)
Market King needed five tries to break his maiden and hasn’t won since, though attention should be paid whenever the legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas has a horse in the Preakness.