In California recall, Newsom fails in leading

SAN DIEGO — A recall election seems to be on the horizon in the Golden State.

In 2018, Gavin Newsom was elected governor of California with 62% of the vote. The future appeared limitless. One could have easily imagined him winning reelection in 2022, then vying for the White House in 2024.

But then came 2020, the year of COVID-19 with all its harmful side effects. And in California — with its GDP of $3.2 trillion, representing almost 15% of the total U.S. economy — the worst side effect was a government lockdown that shuttered schools and crushed businesses.

As in other states, the lockdown was an executive function. It was Newsom’s call.

The governor also made some dumb mistakes

— like attending a dinner, without a mask, at a ritzy Napa Valley restaurant last November while other restaurants were shut down.

But Californians are also notoriously anti-authority. Many of these folks moved here from other states so they could do what they want, when they want, and how they want. They don’t take kindly to anyone telling them they can’t do it. To radical leave-me-alone types, Newsom went from the face of the future to the face of fascism.

At the start of the pandemic, when the beaches were closed, a friend who works for the city in a coastal community told me that he was getting angry phone calls from defiant baby boomers who wanted to surf. In California, riding a wave is considered “essential work.”

A recall election can be triggered if supporters gather about 1.5 million valid signatures. Supporters got more than 2 million, and already 1.2 million have been verified. A recall election is a good bet, and it will likely be in November.

Newsom knows this. Last month, he appeared on ABCs “The View” — the holy grail for liberal women — and made clear he will fight to save at least one job: his own.

Asked where the recall effort came from, Newsom went full political. He blamed “the top 10% proponents, the people who are behind this, are members of the 3-percenters, the right wing militia groups, the Proud Boys, who supported the insurrection, and folks who quite literally and enthusiastically support QAnon conspiracies.” Unbelievable. The poor guy doesn’t have a clue about how he got here. The recall effort in California goes well beyond sour grapes Republicans who can’t win statewide elections anymore. Every time they find a candidate that is to their liking, that candidate is so far to the right that he winds up being intensely disliked by the rest of the state.

There are also disappointed Democrats who voted for Newsom and now think the guy just wasn’t up to the job. They include teachers, restaurant owners, and health care workers who give Newsom failing marks.

It’s true that polling suggests the recall breaks along party lines. A recent survey by the Public Policy Institute of California found that only 40% of likely voters back the recall, while 56% oppose it. Seventy-nine percent of Republicans would vote “yes,” but only 15% of Democrats would do the same.

Still, it would be a huge mistake to think these figures translate into a vote of confidence for the governor.

They do not. Californians are just worried about what is behind door #2, if Newsom gets recalled and a Republican takes his place. You don’t beat something with nothing. The California GOP has less than nothing to offer.

But the major weapon in Newsom’s arsenal is, ironically, something that hurt him during the pandemic because it led him to make bad decisions: his political instincts. The problem wasn’t that he closed the state. The problem is that he closed it, then opened it, then closed it halfway, then opened it halfway, then who knows what?

Newsom is a natural politician. He isn’t a good governor, but he’s a great candidate. He loves the fight. The anti-recall campaign is already sending out emails, asking for donations to defeat “the Republican recall.”

Politics is the only line of work that Newsom has ever been in. He is 53 years old, and he’s been politicking since he was 29 and serving on the San Francisco board of supervisors. He’s a master at politics.

California Republicans — who in many ways are in more trouble than he is — can’t touch him. The governor is in full campaign mode. Newsom is determined to save his job, summoning a competence that was sadly missing when it was time for him to do the job he is trying to save.