Brace yourself for a stormy hurricane season

Buckle up for another wild ride. The federal government predicts a near- or above-average 2018 hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin, where five to nine hurricanes are expected to form.

In all, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts 10 to 16 named tropical storms will develop in the region, which includes the Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, the agency said Thursday. The season officially begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

Of the hurricanes, one to four could be major, with wind speeds of 111 mph or higher and rated Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale of Hurricane Intensity. An average season typically spawns six hurricanes.

A tropical storm contains wind speeds of 39 mph and becomes a hurricane when winds reach 74 mph.

Even before the official season kicks into gear, forecasters are watching a system predicted to spin up in the Gulf of Mexico over Memorial Day weekend.

“There are no climate signals that suggest this season will be extremely active like last season or extremely weak,” said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

NOAA said it takes only one hurricane to cause a catastrophic season: “Millions of people need to know that hurricane season is coming, and you need to start preparing now,” Bell said.

The possibility of a weak El Niño developing is a factor driving this year’s outlook. El Niño, a warming of the Pacific Ocean, often tamps down Atlantic hurricanes. “If an El Niño develops, it could shut down the latter part of the season,” Bell said.