Six Atlantic hurricanes expected this season

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins Friday, may not be a blockbuster after all.

In a revised seasonal forecast released Thursday, top scientists from Colorado State University said a nearaverage season is likely, with 14 named storms, of which six would become hurricanes.

A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when its wind speed reaches 74 mph.

This is a decrease from a forecast the group released in April. The reason for the revised predictions is that seawater in the eastern Atlantic Ocean is unusually cold for this time of year, meteorologist Phil Klotzbach said. The cool water means less fuel for hurricanes to form.

In addition, a weak El Niño could also form later in the year, which tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane development.

Of the six predicted hurricanes, two are expected to spin into major hurricanes — category 3, 4 or 5 — with sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or greater. The group said there’s a 51% chance of a major hurricane landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline.

Despite the lowered forecast, meteorologists caution against complacency. “It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season,” said meteorologist Michael Bell, also of Colorado State.

For example, the 1992 hurricane season was relatively quiet overall, with only seven named storms. But one of them was catastrophic Hurricane Andrew.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, though storms sometimes form outside those dates.