A theory on local growth

Recently, a representative from the Hillary Clinton camp delivered a message to Martin O’Malley, the former Maryland governor preparing to challenge Clinton for the 2016 Democratic nomination.

I have some good news and some bad news, the messenger said.

What’s the good news? asked O’Malley.

The good news is we’re taking you seriously, the messenger answered. And the bad news is ... we’re taking you seriously.

The undertone of threat was unmistakable, but anyone who takes on Clintonworld has to expect that. And indeed, pro-O’Malley Democrats -- there are some -- are not at all surprised by the tone. “They are the most petty, vengeful people out there,” says one Democrat of the Clinton organization.

“They hold a grudge for decades. I don’t think he (O’Malley) expected them to welcome him with a fruit basket.”

And Clintonworld has reason to be concerned. Yes, Hillary’s lead is huge, and yes, she is at this point the presumptive Democratic nominee. But there are already emerging signs that the coronation might not go as planned.

It’s early yet, but O’Malley’s recent declaration -- “The presidency of the United States is not some crown to be passed between two families” -is probably the best line of the campaign so far. If you took a poll to gauge public opinion on that turn of phrase, approval would likely be very, very high.

“It was a very effective line,” says another Democrat. “And it’s the first time he’s taken a swing -- he’s always deferred in the past.”

No more. O’Malley is acting like a real candidate now, traveling, hiring staff and fashioning a message. Democratic insiders point to three factors that could help O’Malley turn a non-race into a race.

1) Even when she has the nomination race to herself, Clinton rarely rises above 60 percent with Democrats. (In the RealClearPolitics average of polls, she is currently just under 60 percent.)

“There is one-third to 40 percent of the Democratic electorate that wants a primary race,” notes the second Democrat. “Even in a field where she doesn’t have an opponent, Hillary doesn’t get above 65 percent.” The job of O’Malley, or any other Clinton challenger, is to connect with that 35 percent to 40 percent of Democrats who are hoping for a Clinton opponent.

2)

The

history

of Democratic primary battles is that an insurgent almost always puts a scare into the sure-thing front-runner. “You can go back decades,” says the Democrat. “There has always been a moment in the Democratic primary in which the overwhelming, conventional, oddson establishment favorite was vulnerable to an outsider challenge.”

While that is truer of some years than others, there is a pretty long list of insurgents -- Howard Dean, Bill Bradley, Jerry Brown and others -- who created some nervous moments for the leading candidate. In 2008, of course, the outsider Barack Obama did a lot more than that. And the odds-on favorite he toppled then just happens to be the odds-on favorite now.

3) The press wants a primary. Republicans can complain that the media is in the tank for Hillary, but there seems little doubt that many voices in the press would like to see an actual contest for the Democratic nomination. The Boston Globe, for example, recently begged Sen. Elizabeth Warren to run.

“Democrats would be making a big mistake if they let Hillary Clinton coast to the presidential nomination without real opposition,” the paper editorialized. The fact that some key voices in the press won’t take Warren’s “no” for an answer is an indication the Fourth Estate would like a fight. And if Warren stays out, they’ll talk up any other credible challenger.

O’Malley is more than credible. He has the credentials of a two-term governor and the ability to position himself to the progressive left of Clinton. On Wall Street, LGBT issues, immigration, trade -- on those and more, O’Malley can credibly cast himself as more progressive than Hillary.

“Hillary and Bill Clinton have been thick as thieves with Wall Street,” says a proO’Malley Democrat. “She was very close with the financial industry, and she depends on them for money.”

Years after the economic meltdown, many on the left are still angry that none of the big Wall Street players was punished, and it hurts Clinton to be associated with those players.

“This is a really, really, really big issue with progressives -- that there was no accountability for Wall Street,” says the Democrat.

The planets are aligning for a real Democratic race. That doesn’t mean Clinton will lose (although anything can happen), but it does mean there will be no smooth, easy path to the crown.

Byron York is chief political correspondent for The Washington Examiner.

I would like to throw something out there to the readers of the Standard Journal, and see what you fine folks out there have to say about it.

There’s going to be growth in Polk County, and it might come sooner than you think. Why?

Because simply put, the metro area as it stands is about out of room again, and the new baseball stadium in Cobb County is only going to make it more cramped in Northwest Georgia.

I’ve been throwing this idea around with a few people since the Braves announced their new park, and I’ve gotten mixed thoughts. Some agree, some don’t see it the same way I do.

The explanation as to why I believe growth is coming our way could fill a Russian novel, but simply put, my prediction is based on a combination of a gut call and a study of past trends in Atlanta

A lot of what will happen depends on the economy remaining strong, and real estate prices locally remaining lower than the market values for the same property within the rim of I-285 and metro growth.

I’m sure this sounds like I’ve cooked up a crackpot theory for a column this week. (Which, in fairness, it could technically go that way.) Yet I don’t think it’s so crazy to believe Polk County could be the next big area of growth in the state.

No one would have believed Rockdale County, once a rural community with some aspirations of growing up with Atlanta, would have done what they have over the past decade. Yet they have a big pharmaceutical manufacturer and a plan to handle the influx of new residents for the coming decades while still maintaining their scenic charm.

Polk County has these elements too: small towns, lots of room to grow, big dreams of bringing in more manufacturers. Our biggest hangup locally is the lack of quick interstate access. Yet, that’s not such an awful thing either.

If you don’t believe me, start by surfing over to Google maps, or see the illustrated map on the side.

See that big oblong circle around Metro Atlanta? Encompassing everything within its circumference starting south on I-75 from McDonough, west on I-20 to about Douglasville, up northward to Acworth and eastward to Lawrenceville, maybe even Dacula or Auburn, is about as densely packed as any place can be.

Now notice on the map where the two big areas are that metro Atlanta haven’t started marching outwards from the hectic, traffic jammed center with roadways connecting small communities that make up a huge whole?

See them? Those two main areas are Northwest Georgia ( meaning counties like Bartow, Paulding, Polk, Gordon and to an extent Floyd County. And only portions of Paulding remain untouched.)

The second area is southeast of the city past Covington and out toward Milledgeville as I-20 fans out toward Augusta, and I-75 southward to Macon.

Now, I could make a ton of arguments for either’s success or failure in attracting growth, but I think Northwest Georgia wins for two reasons: We have hills, and we are closer to the major professional teams than Covington, Eatonton and Milledgeville.

I was given a stark reminder of the horrible traffic jams in downtown Atlanta last Thursday, when I went down for a concert.

Though I was only stuck in real bumper to bumper traffic for about five minutes, each second was drawn out terror. I moved over, Froggerlike, five lanes of traffic to get off at the Freedom Parkway exit.

When I got out of the car at the Variety Playhouse in Little Five Points, my legs shook.

Imagine then, having to do that day after day. Brake. Gas. Brake. Hours of life wasted in the car not moving anywhere - two hours to drive 30 miles to and from work doesn’t sound all that appealing.

So the Braves moving out of that mess down- town is the first smart move they’re making.

The other smart move: going where the movement is already happening. If anyone needs evidence of this, look at our neighbors to the southeast in Paulding County.

Places like Villa Rica were once tiny spots on the map no one thought much about. Then as the economy boomed and more people moved into the metro area, Paulding got its growth. The county as a whole has a host of problems to tackle in the aftermath of their construction boom.

Assessing the situation in Polk County as it stands, one could argue that we too are not greatly prepared for what might be coming. Infrastructure across the board could be better, but also could be worse.

We have done what we could with what we have at hand here in Polk up to this point. But if my theory is right and growth is coming this way, we better get ready now. The pieces puzzle are all there. It’s just a matter of matching them to see the bigger picture.

If growth comes – after all, this is all just a theory based on what’s happened up to this point in the metro area – it will start in Rockmart and continue toward Cedartown for a while. Development on a limited scale has occured in Rockmart, but not the level of growth seen closer to the metro area.

Before we start talking about growth, I think we need to all answer one fundamental question: do we want to get bigger in Polk County?

Growth can be a good thing. Look at the renaissance underway in Chattanooga, or the decades of growth in Atlanta, Charlotte, Nashville and Birmingham.

With them have come greater populations, greater tax revenues and more businesses. However problems with crime, schools and infrastructure have followed in that wake as well.

So is growth even that good of an idea for our county?

I know I don’t want more traffic headaches than I can handle at the moment.

Just imagine then if the Friday night rush to get home on Main Street in Cedartown, or on Highway 113 in the Rockmart area, was required to handle double the amount of cars.

I look at the streets of Cedartown and Rockmart, and I see great potential.

I see growth across the horizon as that metro band continues to stretch outwards as more people head toward the Atlanta area in search of jobs and opportunities from elsewhere.

The thing we have on our side at the moment is time. We can figure out what to do with any pending growth, because it has yet to come to pass. And it might not come at all.

No matter what happens, we must remember that we have a responsibility to ensure that if growth comes, it comes in a manner which we can handle together as a community.

Managing what resources we have, from keeping our water supply safe to ensuring everyone can still enjoy our scenic vistas, will get us further than we can ever imagine.