Roster Projection 2.0: Injuries taking toll ahead of Opening Day
A few weeks back when we did our first Red Sox roster projection, there were still a few notable unknowns. Who might emerge to claim a spot in the starting rotation and at the back of the bullpen? How might the bench shake out? Could any spring heroes emerge from obscurity to earn a place on the Opening Day roster?
Now nearly three weeks into spring training we have a much better idea of how the team should look on Opening Day, and unfortunately it’s not because of anything good.
Injuries have taken their toll on the Red Sox, who appear set to enter the season with several important contributors sidelined. Lucas Giolito’s elbow injury is particularly devastating, and new second baseman Vaughn Grissom is going to be playing catchup whenever he returns after essentially having his entire spring training wiped out.
The Red Sox do still have some viable alternatives to plug the holes that have emerged, but for a team that has such little margin for error this isn’t a place the club wants to be. In any case, here’s where we see things at roughly the midway point of spring, and what lingering questions remain unanswered.
Catchers (2)
Connor Wong, Reese Mcguire
Connor Wong has been a bit banged up this spring, but he’s still taken regular at-bats despite battling a sore elbow through the first two weeks of camp and has hit pretty well. He and Reese Mcguire should be good to go for Opening Day and there’s no reason to expect any surprises when the roster is finalized.
That being said, it should be noted Boston’s catching depth has drastically improved from a year ago and it might be interesting to see how things shake out at the Triple-a level. Tyler Heineman is currently on the 40-man roster and should be the first man up if Wong or Mcguire get hurt, but the veteran Roberto Perez is a two-time Gold Glove winner and has drawn rave reviews from the pitching staff.
The club will also have to find playing time in the minors for Mark Kolozsvary, Nathan Hickey and Stephen Scott, all of whom spent time in big league camp but probably won’t have the option of starting in Double-a, where Kyle Teel projects to get the lion’s share of the work. That’s not something most fans need to concern themselves with, however, and it’s a good problem to have compared to last year when the club’s catching depth was borderline non-existent.
Infielders (6)
Triston Casas, Enmanuel Valdez, Trevor Story, Rafael Devers, Pablo Reyes, C.J. Cron, Vaughn Grissom (15day IL)
Vaughn Grissom’s groin strain was a huge bummer and should land him on the injured list for Opening Day, but one person who greatly stands to benefit is Enmanuel Valdez. The second-year infielder probably had no shot of opening the season in the majors before, but now he’s the odds-on favorite to begin the year as the starting second baseman.
Things aren’t quite as settled on the bench, but Pablo Reyes should feel pretty good about his chances as the main utility guy. As for the back-up first baseman, C.J. Cron’s arrival puts a lot of pressure on Bobby Dalbec, who previously could have earned a roster spot almost by default. Cron is coming off an injury-plagued season but is only two years removed from an All-star campaign in which he hit 29 home runs for Colorado. He’s exactly the kind of right-handed thumper the Red Sox could use backing up Triston Casas, and if he stays healthy and performs these next few weeks he’ll likely be the guy.
Outfielders (5)
Masataka Yoshida, Tyler O’neill, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Rob Refsnyder
The big question here is whether or not Ceddanne Rafaela wins the starting center field job, and while he’s performed well so far, I’m not quite ready to put him there.
Though Rafaela has gotten the most playing time at center field of anyone on the roster this spring, that’s partially a product of Jarren Duran being brought along slowly as he completes his recovery from toe surgery. Rafaela has mostly played with the second unit and in road games, and on Tuesday when Alex Cora fielded the club’s entire starting lineup, Duran was playing center with Rafaela coming off the bench.
That being said, it’s hard to imagine Rafaela getting off to a better start. Defensively he’s been outstanding, obviously, but even more encouraging has been his progress at the plate. (Offensive stats entering the weekend)
If Rafaela keeps that up it might be hard for Alex Cora to keep him in Triple-a, but for now we’re sticking with the O’neill-duran-abreu alignment with Masataka Yoshida as the DH and Rob Refsnyder off the bench.
Starting rotation (5)
Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford, Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck, Lucas Giolito (60day IL)
Lucas Giolito’s elbow injury is a huge setback, and unfortunately it should also bring a measure of clarity for the Red Sox rotation. Barring any unexpected late additions, the kids are going to be the ones shouldering the load.
Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck, who we thought would be going head to head for the last spot in the rotation, now look set to each get a chance to prove themselves once more. Along with Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford, the Red Sox rotation now projects to be comprised almost entirely of young, up-and-coming arms who are still trying to establish themselves as big league starters.
The lone exception, Nick Pivetta, is entering a contract year and has a lot to prove as well.
Josh Winckowski and Cooper Criswell will get an opportunity to start as well, and it’s possible one could even open the season in the rotation as a sixth man to help the club get through its hectic first month. But given everything the organization has invested in Whitlock and Houck, it’s hard to imagine they won’t get the ball when the chips are down.
Bullpen (8)
Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, Brennan Bernardino, Josh Winckowski, Cooper Criswell, Justin Slaten, Isaiah Campbell, Greg Weissert, Zack Kelly (15-day IL), Bryan Mata (15day IL)
Originally it appeared the Red Sox were overflowing with big league caliber bullpen arms, but since our first roster projection John Schreiber was traded and then Lucas Giolito got hurt. Now things aren’t looking quite as crowded.
The core of the bullpen is largely the same, with Kenley Jansen still pegged as the closer, Chris Martin as the top set-up guy, Brennan Bernardino as the lead left-hander and Josh Winckowski as a versatile hybrid arm. Cooper Criswell is probably a lock at this point too, either in a similar role as Winckowski or as a dedicated bulk guy, leaving three more spots up for grabs.
Justin Slaten will almost certainly get one of them. The Rule 5 pick has been outstanding, consistently filling the zone with strikes while keeping big league hitters on their heels. Newcomer Isaiah Campbell is a good bet too, he pitched well as a rookie in Seattle last year and has drawn positive reviews since being acquired last fall. That leaves one spot, and the Red Sox could go a number of different ways.
Do the Red Sox opt for an experienced arm? If so they may go with Greg Weissert or Zack Kelly, both of whom have enjoyed success in their brief stints in the majors. Do the Red Sox want to carry a second lefty? If so they could go with either Chris Murphy or Joe Jacques, both of whom are on the 40-man roster, or they could add a non-roster veteran like Joely Rodriguez or Lucas Luetge. Do the Red Sox value upside above all else? Then maybe they could still carry Bryan Mata, the club’s former top pitching prospect who boasts some of the best stuff in the organization but who is out of minor league options and must make the team. Mata has been shut down with a hamstring injury and may need to start the season on the injured list anyway, but if he’s ready to go it’s possible the club could give him a shot to see what he can do.
For the sake of this exercise, let’s say the Red Sox go with Weissert. Like Slaten and Campbell he was acquired this offseason in a trade — the Alex Verdugo deal — and he offers probably the best combination of experience and upside of Boston’s depth arms. Plus, Kelly’s battling a sore oblique and might need to start the season on the IL anyway. In either case, the last spot in the Red Sox bullpen will probably wind up being a revolving door anyway, so don’t be surprised if a lot of these contenders see action in the majors at some point or another.