The Patriots’ perfect plan for free agency
Three years ago, starved for talent, the Patriots set a record for free-agent spending.
History should not repeat itself next week, but the Patriots remain hungrier than ever.
Every position on offense could use a helping of fresh talent, even after the team re-signed tight end Hunter Henry and added ex-steelers right tackle Chukwuma Okorafor this week. The Pats are also big-game hunting on defense, aiming for elite starters under new head coach Jerod Mayo.
Free agency is not stocked with such blue-chip talent, same as it was three years ago. Still, the Pats paid top-dollar for several players that year, and landed just one Pro Bowler in Matt Judon. Granted, a Pro Bowl bar is an imperfect measurement, but however you dissect that free-agent class, the Patriots did not receive enough return on their unprecedented investment.
Since then, they’ve made one playoff trip in three years, lost eight more games than they’ve won and backed into another full-on rebuild. So how do they build back properly this year?
Start with these players. A mix of A-listers and bargain buys, who can fill immediate roster holes and lay the foundation for the franchise’s future, while understanding the keystone of that future — a rookie quarterback — won’t be added until next month.
Tier 1: Pro Bowl-caliber starters
are flexible, however, here’s the deal: the Patriots’ 2024 third-round pick — No. 68 overall — and a conditional 2025 fifth-rounder.
Together, that adds to a second-round value, per modern trade value charts. The Pats can recoup their fifth-round pick when they ship out Mac Jones, effectively making this deal a third-rounder for one of the best coverage players in the NFL.
The 27-year-old Sneed is a long, physical corner who stands at 6-foot-1 and runs a 4.3. He was raised in the slot, then moved outside the past two seasons, where he shadowed opponents’ top receivers. Recently, that’s included future Hall of Famer Tyreek Hill and three-time Pro Bowler Ja’marr Chase.
The list of cornerbacks capable of shadowing Hill and Chase is no longer than four or five players.
Sneed’s man-to-man talent and versatility make him the perfect corner opposite 2023 first-round pick Christian Gonzalez. Together, they could form a top-5 cornerback duo in the league and unlock every coverage, blitz and defensive call in the book. More to the point: they would protect their fellow defensive backs from bad matchups, buy the pass rush more time and limit opponents’ game-plan possibilities, knowing outside receivers will struggle versus New England.
Again, the cost is expensive. Perhaps even prohibitive. But if the Patriots want a tentpole player at a premium position who can start immediately and elevate his teammates, that’s Sneed.
Go get him.
Tier 2: Above-average starters
fast and as quick as a mouse, talents that allow him to play both outside and in the slot. Unlike other diminutive receivers Brown (5-foot-9, 180 pounds), does not need touches schemed for him, and can escape man-to-man coverage.
Brown likely tops out as a No. 2 receiver across the league, but with the Patriots — who could still add a No. 1-type talent in a wideout-rich draft — he would become their far-and-away best option. The only clearcut superior receiver available, Calvin Ridley, is three years older, comes with baggage and is expected to command several million more.
EDGE Jonathan Greenard
Projected contract: 4 years, $68 million
At 6-foot-3, 263 pounds, Greenard fits the Patriots’ physical prototype for edge defenders. He’s strong and relentless, tallying a career-high 12.5 sacks last season, plus 22 QB hits, two pass deflections and a forced fumble. Greenard has recorded at least eight sacks in both seasons he’s earned at least a dozen starts.
Pairing Greenard with Judon would instantly form one of the NFL’S best edge-rushing duos, and allow the Patriots to possibly replace Judon, 31, after next season. Greenard is a talented pass rusher entering his prime at age 26. You want those players on your defense.
Tier 3: Solid starters Projected contract: 3 years, $48 million
The 26-year-old started at left tackle for the Bengals from 2020-22, then flipped to right tackle to make room for free-agent acquisition Orlando Brown Jr. Williams held up well, but plays his best on the left side, where he would replace Trent Brown in New England. Williams is an above-average passblocker with strong technique that masks his athletic shortcomings.
The Patriots could do a lot worse than adding a proven starter with newfound positional versatility.
Tier 4: Reliable backups QB Jacoby Brissett
Projected contract: 2 years, $18 million
The most obvious fit on the market makes the most sense.
Brissett enjoyed his best season under new Patriots offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt. He started his career in New England. He understands who he is: a quarterback who lives among the league’s worst 10 starters and five best backups.
Brissett has long been heralded for his leadership and locker-room presence. Considering the Patriots may need a stopgap quarterback this season and should draft a new face of the franchise at No. 3 overall, Brissett is the perfect veteran to complement that rookie.
RB Devin Singletary
Projected contract: 2 years, $8 million
Singletary would offer a solid change-of-pace back for Rhamondre Stevenson, who’s entering a contract year. He packs a sneaky punch at 5-foot-7, and boasts a well-rounded game. Singletary can spell Stevenson on third down and make spot starts, having started 66 of 78 career regular-season games since entering the league as a Bills third-round pick in 2019.
The only question is whether last year’s dip in efficiency proves he’s lost a half-step or can still thrive in a lesser role. Singletary, while just 26, has racked up more than 1,000 career touches.
WR Noah Brown
Projected contract: 2 years, $8 million
The 28-year-old has enjoyed a late-career breakout, posting consecutive seasons with at least 550 yards after starting as a core special teamer. Last year, Brown recorded two games of 150-plus yards and made seven starts for the
Texans. He likely tops out as a No. 3 or 4 receiver, but provides solid depth, good size (6-foot-2, 215 pounds) and big-play ability.
DL A’shawn Robinson
Projected contract: 2 years, $11.5 million
A steady-eddy run stuffer, Robinson can play across the defensive line. He’s wellversed in the Patriots’ system and techniques, having played his college ball at Alabama and in Detroit under ex-pats defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. The Patriots recently released Lawrence Guy, and Robinson — who’s started 37 games the past three seasons — would make for a solid, more versatile replacement.
Tier 5: Re-sign Projected contract: 4 years, $62 million
An offense aching for offensive line talent cannot let its best, more versatile lineman leave. Onwenu may need to be overpaid to be swayed to stay, but the 26-year-old is just entering his prime. Keep him at right tackle or move him back to right guard and let a rookie tackle start.
Either way, the Patriots are better with Onwenu on their roster.
WR Kendrick Bourne
Projected contract: 3 years, $23 million
Bourne is a reliable No. 3 wide receiver capable of playing inside and out, with strong hands and above-average run-after-catch skills. He’s ahead of schedule on his recovery from a torn ACL. This will be the last long-term deal of his career, one the Pats should be able to secure at a relative discount given his recent injury.
TE Pharaoh Brown
Projected contract: 1 year, $3 million
An ideal No. 3 tight end, Brown is content throwing smaller defenders out of the club when run-blocking and can hold his own against defensive ends. He also accounted for a few explosive plays last season and was wellliked and respected in the locker room.