The Pats’ best first-round trade isn’t a trade back
One week ago, half a continent away, the Vikings sent football imaginations spinning in New England.
In a trade with Houston, the Vikings acquired the No. 23 overall pick, giving them two-first round selections and two major building blocks for another move up into the top five. Minnesota, theoretically, could now approach the Patriots about the third overall pick or Arizona at No. 4 after letting starting quarterback Kirk Cousins walk in free agency. Do they want to trade up for Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels? Maybe J.J. Mccarthy?
Should the Patriots engage?
Flatly, no.
A franchise quarterback is the rarest, most valuable commodity in the sport, and the only reliable place they can be found on earth is the top five of the NFL Draft. Unless Patriots de facto GM Eliot Wolf and head coach Jerod Mayo are sure to their core that Maye and Daniels are unfit to become their next face of the franchise, they should stay put and pick one after Washington and Chicago presumably take quarterbacks. Then, develop him.
Franchise quarterbacks are not just game-changers, they are world-changers. Forces strong enough to reshape legacies, local economies and the sports identity of a region. Just ask Buffalo about Josh Allen. Or Cincinnati about Joe Burrow. Or Baltimore about Lamar Jackson. Or, of course, Kansas City about Patrick Mahomes.
All of them became playoff teams by Year 2 of their quarterbacks’ careers. Naturally, none of these players were guaranteed to find greatness at the time of their selection. No kidding.
The NFL Draft is a series of bets, pick by pick, prospect by prospect. The risk of the draft is as obvious and established as real gambling (ask your friends and fellow fans about Mac Jones). It needs no further explanation, though for our purposes it’s worth remembering the hit rate on firstround quarterbacks hovers around 30%.
But again, the payoff is substantial. Life-changing. And the only other roster-building avenues available — trade and free agency — don’t lead to top10 quarterbacks. No team in its right mind is trading such a player, especially with the franchise tag available. As for free agency, over the past four offseasons, the best quarterbacks to sign on the open market have been 35-year-old Kirk Cousins coming off a torn Achilles, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo and Ryan Fitzpatrick.
If you want to roll the dice with them, good luck.
Furthermore, the Patriots are in no rush to actualize Daniels’ potential, or Maye’s, at the risk of ruining them. This rebuild will be a slow burn, as foretold by Wolf’s comments at the combine, and the front office’s actions since then. If the team isn’t ready for the rookie, or vice versa, they’ll sit him in favor of Jacoby Brissett. Brissett is here to take the hits until the kid can.
Still, the Pats can raise their next quarterback’s odds of hitting by bolstering the talent around them. That starts with a trade.
Not a trade back from No. 3 overall, but a move up into the back end of the first round.
The 2024 draft class is rich with wide receivers and offensive tackles, the two biggest holes on the Patriots’ roster. The front office must, must draft at least one Day 1 starter at either position, or ideally both.
Upwards of 11 wide receivers could go in the top 50, according to draft experts, but only a few fit that mold and the type of wideout the Patriots need: an “X” receiver. A big-bodied weapon who can win in isolation, and isn’t scheme dependent to get open. Not a slot receiver (Demario Douglas and K.J. Osborn) or a slot/z target without game-breaking speed or quickness (Juju Smith-schuster and Kendrick Bourne).
This “X” receiver can defeat man coverage and inhale high-leverage targets, even when the defense knows the ball is going to him on third down and inside the red zone. The Bengals paired Burrow with a receiver like this, fellow 2020 draft pick Tee Higgins, and accelerated his timeline. Mahomes had elite weapons from the get-go, and the Bills gifted Allen one of the league’s best “X” receivers, Stefon Diggs, right as he took off and took Buffalo with him.
Of course, the Patriots could hope and wait until their second-round pick at 34th overall for a receiver like that. But there are two projected Day 1 starters within striking distance at the end of the first round who fit that exact mold: LSU’S Brian Thomas Jr. and Texas product Adonai Mitchell.
Here’s NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah, a former scout for the Eagles, Ravens and Browns, on Thomas: “Thomas is a big, explosive wideout. … He easily defeats press coverage with his quickness. He is very sudden in his release and can find another gear once the ball is up in the air. He is very loose and fluid as a route runner. … He has a very large catch radius because of his frame, leaping ability and ball skills. After the catch, he has some wiggle to make defenders miss and also boasts home run speed. Overall, Thomas is a big-play machine and has the upside to develop into a No. 1 receiver for his drafting team.”
Thomas stands at 6-foot-3 and 209 pounds. He clocked a 4.33 in the 40-yard dash. He scored an Fbs-leading 17 touchdowns last season. Sold yet?
Now, Thomas is projected to go in the top 15 to 25, meaning it would cost the Patriots their secondand third-round picks at No. 34 and 68 overall, respectively, to jump into the middle of that range and another pick or two to get closer to the top. Too rich?
Try Mitchell, who’s expected to hear his name called between picks No. 20 and 30, and may be the most physically gifted receiver in the draft at 6-2, 205 with 4.3 speed and a 40-inch vertical.
Here’s Jeremiah on Mitchell: “(He) has outstanding size, toughness and polish for the position. He is fast and has a long stride. He has surprisingly good route polish for a bigger receiver. He understands how to change tempo, and he’s clean getting in and out of breaks. … He can climb the ladder, hang and finish (SEE: his TD grab against Washington in the College Football Playoff). It looks like he gets a little lazy at times on the back side of routes, assuming the ball is going elsewhere. He doesn’t have a ton of production after the catch. Overall, though, Mitchell is an ideal X receiver. He can make plays when covered, and he’s a real weapon in the red zone.”
The other bonus to moving up for a first-round receiver: the fifth-year option. All first-round picks sign four-year contracts including a fifth-year team option, whereas all other prospects ink straight four-year deals. The Bengals were forced to use the franchise tag on Higgins last month in order to keep him because they drafted him in the second-round.
If the Patriots aren’t sold on Thomas or Mitchell, offensive tackle makes as much, if not more sense, for a trade back up. They have no identifiable starter at left tackle, and cannot protect any quarterback like that, let alone a face of the franchise.
Enter Washington’s Troy Fautanu, Georgia’s Amarius Mims or Arizona’s Jordan Morgan, all projected first-round picks and rookie starters. Oklahoma right tackle Tyler Guyton offers another option, though he spent most of his college career at right tackle. All of them are expected to come off the board in the back half of the first round.
BYU left tackle Kingsley Suamataia is a borderline Day 1/2 pick, someone whose ceiling has been questioned as a franchise left tackle. There is a significant drop-off from that group to the next tier of offensive tackles, including a myriad of developmental prospects. The same goes for wide receiver, where Day 2 prospects South Carolina’s Xavier Legette or Florida product Ricky Pearsall might, might, grow into No. 1 or No. 2 options after going in the second round.
If the Patriots wait too long, the best of the draft will pass them by. They should aggressively pursue these positions in a way they failed to secure Calvin Ridley, locking up a new No. 1 receiver or left tackle for an extra year, even if it comes at an extra cost.
The supply of this draft meets their exact needs. These are premium positions. You must pay a premium to fill them.
It’s time.
Quote of the Week
“If you’re in the right spot at the right time, the quarterback loves that. If you do that consistently, he’ll like you more.” — New Patriots tight end Austin Hooper, playing for his fifth team in nine years, on the key to developing chemistry with new quarterbacks