Region zeroes in on fewer business restrictions

The Inland Empire is on the precipice of reopening more businesses indoors, but must see more improvement in certain numbers state officials use to track coronavirus risk, state data released Tuesday show.

While the latest figures for Riverside and San Bernardino counties represent week-over-week improvement, at least one metric in each region still is above the threshold for a county to graduate from the purple, or widespread risk tier to the red, or substantial risk tier.

To move between the two most restrictive tiers in the state’s color-coded system, a county needs two consecutive weeks of a seven-day adjusted case rate between four and seven daily new cases per 100,000 residents, a positivity rate between 5% and 8% and a health equity metric, or positivity rate in socioeconomically disadvantaged communities, between 5.3% and 8%.

In the less-restrictive red tier, businesses such as dance studios, gyms and fitness centers, movie theaters and museums can reopen indoors with modifications.

For the week ending Feb. 20, San Bernardino County had an adjusted case rate of nine, a positivity rate of 4.4% and a health equity metric of 5.2%.

The county’s positivity rate and health equity metric qualify it for the orange, or moderate risk tier, which requires two consecutive weeks of a seven-day adjusted case rate between one and 3.9, a positivity rate between two and 4.9% and a health equity metric between 2.2 and 5.2%.

Counties in the orange tier can reopen even more businesses, but only when all three state metrics land within a tier range does the two-week clock start.

Riverside County had an 11.3 adjusted case rate, a 5.8% positivity rate and a 6.1% health equity metric for the week ending Feb. 20, placing all three figures just outside red-tier thresholds.

Like San Bernardino County, Los Angeles County came just short of landing all three metrics in red-tier range. There, the adjusted case rate also is the only one too high.

As vaccines continue to find the arms of residents in all three counties, Riverside County expects to receive doses of the single-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine as early as next week, Director of Public Health Kim Saruwatari told the Board of Supervisors on Tuesday.

“We are looking at areas of the county where logistically, it would make sense to utilize that vaccine because it is a single dose,” she said.

Dr. Geoffrey Leung of Riverside University Health System — the county-run health care network — said his “best guess” is that “by late summer, we will have had enough supply to vaccinate the majority of our population in Riverside County.”

Here are the latest numbers, according to county and state public health officials.

San Bernardino County

Confirmed cases: 286,814 total, up 59 from Monday, averaging 248 reported per day in the past week

Deaths: 2,952 total, up 12 from Monday, averaging 43.0 reported per day in the past week

Hospital survey: 280 confirmed and 29 suspected patients hospitalized Monday, including 69 confirmed and six suspected patients in the ICU, with 24 of 25 facilities reporting. The number of confirmed patients is down 32.4% from a week earlier.

Tests: 2,496,802 total, up 4,635 from Monday, averaging 9,054 reported per day in the past week

Resolved cases (estimate): 281,675 total, up 129 from Monday, averaging 259 per day in the past week

Vaccinations: The county and other providers have administered 293,364 vaccine doses to at least 204,995 people as of Tuesday.

Reopening plan tier: Purple (widespread risk level; many nonessential indoor business operations are closed) based on these metrics as of Tuesday:

• New cases per day per 100,000 residents: 9.1

• Case rate adjusted for testing volume: 9.0

• Test positivity rate: 4.4% (5.2% in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods)

• What’s next: To advance to the red tier and reopen more businesses, San Bernardino County would need an adjusted case rate of 7.0 or below and both positivity rates below 8.0% for two consecutive weeks.

Riverside County

Confirmed cases: 290,325 total, up 552 from Monday, averaging 255 reported per day in the past week

Deaths: 3,829 total, up 37 from Monday, averaging 19.1 reported per day in the past week

Hospital survey: 301 confirmed and 45 suspected patients hospitalized Monday, including 73 confirmed and one suspected patient in the ICU, with 20 of 21 facilities reporting. The number of confirmed patients is down 26.0% from a week earlier.

Tests: 2,497,113 total, up 4,619 from Monday, averaging 8,262 reported per day in the past week

Recovered cases: 275,909 total, up 953 from Monday, averaging 1,333 per day in the past week

Vaccinations: The county says 524,309 doses have been administered to Riverside County residents as of Tuesday.

Reopening plan tier: Purple (widespread risk level; many nonessential indoor business operations are closed) based on these metrics as of Tuesday:

• New cases per day per 100,000 residents: 11.0

• Case rate adjusted for testing volume: 11.3

• Test positivity rate: 5.8% (6.1% in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods)

• What’s next: To advance to the red tier and reopen more businesses, Riverside County would need an adjusted case rate of 7.0 or below and both positivity rates below 8.0% for two consecutive weeks.

Los Angeles County

Confirmed cases: 1,194,333 total, up 1,379 from Monday, averaging 1,548 reported per day in the past week

Deaths: 21,569 total, up 102 from Monday, averaging 214 reported per day in the past week (including 806 previously unreported deaths added to the total Wednesday)

Hospital survey: 1,476 confirmed and 155 suspected patients hospitalized Monday, including 460 confirmed and 25 suspected patients in the ICU, with 90 of 92 facilities reporting. The number of confirmed patients is down 28.5% from a week earlier.

People tested: About 5,844,000 total, up about 4,000 from Monday, averaging 9,000 reported per day in the past week

Vaccinations: The county says 1.96 million doses, including 600,497 second doses, have been administered as of Thursday.

Reopening plan tier: Purple (widespread risk level; many nonessential indoor business operations are closed) based on these metrics as of Tuesday:

• New cases per day per 100,000 residents: 9.7

• Case rate adjusted for testing volume: 7.2

• Test positivity rate: 3.5% (5.1% in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods)

• What’s next: To advance to the red tier and reopen more businesses, L.A. County would need an adjusted case rate of 7.0 or below and both positivity rates below 8.0% for two consecutive weeks.

This includes the latest numbers from L.A. County Public Health as well as Long Beach and Pasadena, which have their own health departments and are typically at least a day ahead of the county in reporting their cities’ cases and deaths.