Murder rate keeps growing across U.S.

NEW YORK » The big increase in the murder rate in the United States in 2020 has carried over to 2021.

A sample of 37 cities with data available for the first three months of this year shows murder up 18% relative to the same period last year. In the midst of a volatile period in crime, keeping track of trends has become especially important so that police and local officials can tailor prevention policies.

But as it happens, this year’s national crime release will be the last of its kind as the FBI transitions to a crime reporting system that will affect the public’s ability to evaluate trends locally and nationally.

On Monday, the FBI released preliminary statistics showing a major increase in murder last year, with a 25% rise in agencies that reported quarterly data. The FBI did not receive data from several cities with known big increases in murder, but cities of all sizes reported increases of greater than 20%.

A 25% increase in murder in 2020 would mean the United States surpassed 20,000 murders in a year for the first time since 1995. (The final official numbers for 2020 will not be released until late September.)

Although it is not clear what has caused the spike in murder, some possibilities are the various stresses of the pandemic; the surge in gun sales during the crisis; and less belief in police legitimacy related to protests over police brutality.

The trend in the early months this year is not necessarily indicative of where things will end up in 2021. Most obviously, the pandemic may mostly recede by summer because of widespread vaccination, and a broad reopening of public life may change the dynamic that has led to the rise in violence.

It may also be harder to assess trends in crime more generally, particularly those other than murder, with the FBI phasing out its use of one data source. The Uniform Crime Report was begun in 1929 to serve as the nation’s repository of crime data. On Jan. 1, it made arguably its biggest change in its century of existence. The eventual result should be more detailed information about crime, but it will probably come at the price of less confidence in reported crime figures over the next few years.