Newsom struggling for regional popularity
IE’s support of governor is not strong like other areas
If the latest polls are right, Gov. Gavin Newsom will fend off the attempt to recall him Tuesday.
But while the statewide picture looks favorable, Newsom might come up short in the Inland Empire, where he struggled to win votes despite cruising to his first term three years ago.
“The polls show, at least on paper, that Inland Empire voters would narrowly vote to retain Newsom,” Marcia Godwin, a professor of public administration at the University of La Verne, said via email. “However, a lot depends on turnout. If the electorate resembles 2018 when Newsom was elected, Riverside County could vote by a slim margin for the recall and San Bernardino could be a nail-biter.”
A liberal Democrat with San Francisco roots, Newsom got 62% of the statewide vote in defeating Republican John Cox in 2018. But Newsom lost Riverside County by roughly 2,400 votes and got just 52% of the vote in San Bernardino County.
That election took place when the Oval Office wasn’t on the ballot. Democrats Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden won Riverside and San Bernardino counties in 2016 and 2020, respectively.
Recall voters can mail in their ballots, vote in person at early voting locations or vote at the polls on Tuesday. Ballots were mailed last month to every registered voter. The latest figures show that, as of Thursday, about 25% of San Bernardino County ballots had been returned while
31% had been returned in Riverside County as of Friday, both counties’ elections offices reported.
Across California, about 31% of vote-by-mail ballots had been returned as of Wednesday, according to the Secretary of State’s most recent update.
Democrats make up a plurality of the roughly 2.4 million registered voters in both counties, and the Inland Empire has become more blue since 2010 as its population becomes more diverse and White and college-educated voters turn away from the GOP.
But Republicans can still win in the region, where Democrats tend to be more blue collar and socially conservative than Democrats in coastal counties. Republican Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh won a competitive race for an Inland state Senate seat in 2020, and Riverside County is home to outspoken conservatives such as Sheriff Chad Bianco and state Sen. Melissa Melendez, R-Lake Elsinore.
“The Inland Empire electorate is much more concerned about economic issues than the rest of the state and is less supportive of vaccine mandates,” Godwin said. “Those views go hand-in-hand with relatively low job approval ratings for Newsom.”
A poll by the Public Policy Institute of California this month found that 39% of likely voters would recall Newsom, compared to 58% who oppose the recall.
Among likely Inland voters, the split was 46% yes on the recall, 54% no. The poll is among a recent slate of surveys showing more voters opposing the recall, while polls conducted earlier this summer were much worse for Newsom.
Mirroring statewide trends, Republican and conservative radio personality Larry Elder was the top choice of likely Inland voters to replace Newsom, with 24% of those polled favoring him. Another Republican, former San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer, was a distant second at 4%.
Elder, Faulconer and Kevin Kiley, a recall candidate and GOP assemblyman, have all made recent campaign stops in the Inland Empire, while Cox, who is running in the recall, has visited the Coachella Valley. Riverside County Supervisor Jeff Hewitt, a Libertarian, also is among the 46 candidates — four with Inland ties — on the recall ballot.
Newsom’s supporters and foes have different messages heading into the recall. The governor has enlisted big-name Democrats — including Biden, who will headline a Monday anti-recall rally in Long Beach — in portraying the recall as a GOP power grab that would put California at the mercy of a Donald Trump disciple — Trump is largely unpopular in the Golden State — who would let the pandemic run amok.
Recall candidates, on the other hand, have tried to put Newsom on trial, making the case that a drastic change is needed to fix the governor’s failed leadership when it comes to jobs, crime, homelessness and other issues.
Godwin said statewide polling “shows remarkable consistency in opposition to the recall. What has changed, though, is more discontent with the recall process itself and thinking that conditions will get worse if the recall is approved.”
“Those shifts suggest that Democratic Party ads linking the recall to a less active approach to the pandemic are being effective,” Godwin added. “The large number of Republican replacement candidates may also be backfiring.”
With Election Day around the corner, local pro- and anti-recall activists are busy reaching out to Inland voters.
Yucaipa resident Debra Lallo, who spent weekends staffing a table in front of Bass Pro Shops in Rancho Cucamonga to gather recall petition signatures, plans to spend the weekend at a Redlands rally and “overpass rallies” in Claremont and Covina, where protesters use signs and banners to catch freeway traffic’s attention.
“Not bad for a 69-year-old woman,” Lallo said, adding she’s been to multiple counties to work with other recall supporters.
“It’s been amazing. I’m so grateful for everyone’s volunteer efforts,” she said. “It opens my eyes to what we need to do. We need to stand up. If we don’t stand up, we’re just allowing the left to walk over us.”
Tisa Rodriguez also has been busy. But the chair of the Riverside County Democratic Party has been working with labor unions and other anti-recall groups in a coalition that’s reached out to voters in different languages via telephone, text messages, literature drops and door knocking.
While a lot of voters appreciate Newsom, many see voting no “as protecting their votes (and) their rights,” Rodriguez said, noting that if the recall passes, someone can become governor with a small fraction of voter support.
“I think it’s gonna be close. But quite honestly, looking at polling in this area and the responses we’ve been able to get … it’s looking pretty positive for us,” Rodriguez said. “We don’t feel it’s in the bag, but we do feel like we’re slowly earning the voters’ support to reject this recall.”
Lallo also is confident.
“If all the voters come out that came out for Trump,” she said, “I think we have it in the bag.”