Post-recall, don’t ignore Californians’ discontent
The victory of Gov. Gavin Newsom in the recall election should not be interpreted as a vote of confidence. With Republicans comprising only a quarter of registered voters and anti-recall forces spending more than double that of all other candidates combined, the outcome was in little doubt.
In spite of that outcome, Californians seem discontented. Over the last two years, 500,000 more people moved out of California than those who have moved in. That net outflow of people “voting with their feet” explains why California lost population for the first time in its history.
The fact that so many people are opting to disrupt their lives and incur the expense and emotional trauma of moving out of their home state reflects deep-seated problems that aren’t going away with the defeat of the Newsom recall. Indeed, they are problems for which that the electorate will increasingly demand spirited and visionary leadership.
There’s a host of challenges California faces. The public is smart enough to know that these problems will not be solved overnight. In spite of that, the public has a right to demand and expect coherent and clearly articulated strategies that address these problems.
COVID-19
On the COVID-19 front, if Newsom anti-recall ads are any indication, the governor is proud of his record in this area. The facts indicate otherwise. The cumulative COVID-19 death rate from Jan. 1, 2020, to Aug. 10 of this year in California is 165 per 100,000 people. That is only slightly lower than the U.S. average of 173. And although Florida’s rate is at 182 versus California’s 165, that difference is fully explained by Florida’s higher population density (higher density leads to higher COVID-19 case and death rates) and the fact that Florida’s percentage of the population over 65 is the highest in the nation at 20.5% versus California’s 14.3%, a percentage lower than the U.S. average of 16.5%.
Yet, Florida’s grade schools were open all year, and its mandates were targeted at its most vulnerable, like people in older age cohorts. Its strategic use of mandates resulted in lower economic losses to the state. That is, in part, why Florida’s unemployment rate is close to the U.S. average of 5.1% while California’s is second highest in the nation at 7.6%. In an article I published in the Journal of Bioeconomics, I presented data that suggested California’s COVID-19 policies resulted in the loss of 500,000 jobs while Florida gained 70,000.
Education
Gov. Newsom’s dining maskless with friends at the exclusive French Laundry restaurant is well-known. The fact that he did so while preaching the importance of avoiding gathering smacked of hypocrisy. But that incident pales in comparison to the governor’s well-known opposition to charter schools and school vouchers while sending his children to private schools. Advocating policies that limit the ability for parents who don’t have access to charter schools or can’t afford private schools while making sure your kids have that opportunity is, in my mind, the height of hypocrisy.
Taxes and regulations
And what about that loss of half a million Californians to other states over the last two years? Our research at Chapman points to taxes and regulations as the prime reasons for this out-flight. In a ranking of all state and local taxes, California ranks second highest after New Jersey. As for regulation, the Mercatus Center at George Mason University ranks California first.
It’s clear people vote with their feet when they become disenchanted and frustrated with where they live. While the out-flight from California has increased sharply in recent years, net domestic migration in the state has been negative every year since 2011. So it’s not just a recent short-lived phenomenon that will soon pass. It demands the governor’s attention.
I suggest that Newsom appoint a bipartisan commission with legislative approval charged with the responsibility of recommending changes focused on improving California’s economic competitiveness.
Voters have given Newsom another chance. Let’s hope he uses that as an opportunity to provide the kind of dynamic leadership that will help make California a place people want to live — not leave.