Failed recall leaves lots of questions
Reforming process, GOP’s future, misleading polling among issues
California’s nonrecall is over, and the state’s political leadership remains exactly as it was when most of us thought French Laundry was a fancy restaurant or an odd washing chore, not the scene of a political incident.
Gov. Gavin Newsom is still governor. Radio host Larry Elder is still a radio host (though one with political ambition). California is still a huge, flawed and perpetually interesting state.
And several political questions still need to be
answered.
WOULD ANYBODY WANT TO DO THIS AGAIN?
Set aside ideology for a moment and consider the economics of what just took place.
California spent an estimated $276million on an idea supported by roughly 1 in 3 voters. Or, to put it another way, Republican activists got every man, woman and child in the state to fork over a little more than what they might spend (about $7 each) on an In-N-Out meal for what looks to be one of the least popular recall efforts in U.S. history.
All of which is helping make recall reform the buzz of Sacramento.
Early Tuesday, hours after voting ended, state Sen. Josh Newman, D-Fullerton, said he wants new recall rules in California.
First, Newman would raise the bar on the number of signatures needed to get a recall on a ballot. Second, he wants the lieutenant governor — not a recall candidate — to finish the term if a governor is booted from office. Both ideas would amend the state constitution and, as such, they need voter approval.
Newman, of course, knows recalls. He won his 29th District seat in 2016, lost it two years later in a recall, and won it back again in 2020, all against the same opponent.
In the press release detailing his proposals, Newman said: “The recall process we have now invites partisan shenanigans that are costly for taxpayers.”
WHAT’S NEXT FOR REPUBLICANS IN CALIFORNIA?
Possibly more Elder or, if not Elder, someone like him.
A lot of pundits argued the recall might have been closer if the GOP had pushed former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, considered a moderate, instead of Elder, a Trump-style conservative.
But pundits love imaginary stuff. Fact: GOP voters liked Elder, not Faulconer. When the tally is final, Elder probably will win close to 50% of the ballots that picked a replacement for Newsom, an impressive finish in a 46-person field.
But here’s another fact: The number of people who chose no replacement for Newsom likely will be more than Elder’s tally. In other words, the GOP’s favored candidate — a radio host who has questioned climate change, believes racism is not a factor in American life and opposes mask and vaccine mandates — could be trounced by “blank.”
Still, some GOP leaders suggest Elder’s performance should be measured by how he sold the party’s ideas, not votes he did or didn’t get.
“I believe he was an excellent messenger because he can clear through a lot of the mainstream media and actually reach voters who sometimes don’t vote with us,” said Fred Whitaker, chair of the Republican Party of Orange County. “California is an extremely large state. You have to have someone who has a very savvy media presence to be able to make an impact when you’ve got 39 million people. The issues he spoke about — education, crime, homelessness — these are issues that cut through all racial divides.”
Whitaker, who personally supported Elder, believes Elder could survive a top-two primary next spring to get on the 2022 general election ballot. After that, he said, the focus would be on a twoman race, probably against Newsom.
WAS THIS EVER A RACE?
In early August, Survey USA, a reliable pollster, released a survey of likely voters showing Newsom losing the recall by 9 percentage points. It was a shocker, given that Newsom’s approval numbers were over 50% and the state has about twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans.
Naturally, the media went into overdrive. Dozens of stories were told about the suddenly competitive horse race, the quirky rules of recall elections, and the idea that Democratic voters might sit on their hands.
But, over the next seven weeks, no fewer than 16 polls showed the opposite result, with Newsom keeping his job by margins ranging from 5 to 19 points. Few stories were written about those polls. And only in the days before the election did many recall stories mention the trend of September polling.
There are solid reasons for this: Recall polling is often wonky, and most polls didn’t track partisan enthusiasm, which was considered key. But those reasons don’t explain why attention was paid to one poll while others were ignored.
At least one election expert stuck to another factor — math — as his touchstone. He also watched closely as mail-in ballots poured in, starting in late August. He argued all along that the recall was the longest of long shots.
“The polling that showed (the recall) close also projected disproportionately high Republican turnout, and apathy and/or disinterest from Democrats,” said Paul Mitchell of Political Data Inc., a Sacramentobased company that provides information to candidates. “(But) the early voting showed neither was occurring. Our ballot tracking showed Democrats were outpacing their share of the electorate.
“It wasn’t a crystal ball,” Mitchell added. “And if we had been at 28% turnout, then the governor could have been in big trouble.”
When all the votes are tallied, state turnout is expected to be closer to 50%.
IS ELECTION FRAUD A COMPLAINT OR A STRATEGY?
Maybe both.
On Tuesday night, when Elder spoke to supporters in Costa Mesa to concede that he won’t be governor, he didn’t talk much about election fraud.
But in the days prior, Elder talked about a “rigged” election. So did former President Donald Trump, echoing debunked claims he’s made about why he lost the 2020 election. Both Elder and Trump made their claims about the recall before votes were even counted. Neither offered proof.
When asked about voter fraud in the recall, O.C. GOP leader Whitaker mentioned an incident in Woodland Hills, where technical problems caused some voters who showed up at a vote center on Saturday to be told, in error, they’d already voted. The L.A. County registrar fixed the problem that day and all voters were allowed to participate with provisional ballots.
Whitaker also mentioned “shenanigans” with the U.S. Postal Service. He said his household didn’t get their mail ballots, so they went to the registrar’s office to get them in person before taking them to drop boxes.
But locally, he said, “We didn’t have anything more than a few sporadic complaints here in Orange County, and nothing that we could verify.”
As for whether chatter about voter fraud claims might have kept some Republicans from bothering to cast ballots in the recall, Whitaker said they plan to contact GOP voters who sat the election out to talk to them about that choice.
“I think there’s nothing wrong with people having some healthy skepticism,” he said.
In a national poll released Wednesday, CNN found a majority of Republicans (78%) still believe Donald Trump won last year’s election.
DID THE PANDEMIC START — AND END — THE RECALL?
Yes.
Without the pandemic, the French Laundry incident — in which Newsom didn’t wear a mask at a party even after he had issued mask orders statewide — wouldn’t have happened. The French Laundry incident sparked donors to back the recall, and it helped recall proponents get people to sign the recall petition that led to the vote.
But the pandemic also took a sharp turn earlier this summer, when the delta variant filled hospitals around the country.
Though the pandemic surged in California, where Newsom has required masks and encouraged vaccines in public schools and health care settings, it surged even more in such states as Florida and Texas, where the governors have pushed back against rules that require people to take steps against the disease.
Every major candidate hoping to replace Newsom argued against mask and vaccine mandates, like the leaders of Texas and Florida. Newsom’s anti-recall campaign leaned in, with commercials that highlighted his support for such steps. While the health rules, (and accusations of Newsom’s hypocrisy at the French Laundry) inflamed GOP voters, they also spurred Democrats to turn out.
In exit polling, voters who said the pandemic was the state’s top issue overwhelmingly chose to keep Newsom in office.