Recession odds within next year now 30%

The odds of a U.S. recession within the next year are steadily rising.

The probability of a recession over the next 12 months is now 30%, the highest since 2020, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists. That’s up slightly from 27.5% in April and double the odds economists predicted just three months ago. The survey was conducted May 6-11 and included responses from 37 economists.

Recession fears have been growing in recent weeks. Inflation is hovering at its highest in decades, and prices are likely to remain elevated for quite some time. The Federal Reserve appears firmly committed to cooling inflation quickly with aggressive interest rate increases. However, the central bank faces a tough task: Cool the economy enough to temper price gains but not so much that the economy tips into recession.