What's behind push to add 441,000 new homes by 2031
Can the Bay Area build its way out of a deepening housing crisis? Should it?
Many experts and officials say constructing more homes — and a lot of them — is the only way to meet the region's increasingly dire housing needs for people of all incomes.
Between now and 2031, state regulators are insisting the Bay Area add over 441,000 new homes of all kinds — a roughly 15% increase in the region's total housing stock.
“The homelessness crisis that's confronting many people is the clearest evidence of the fact that there's a shortage of housing,” said Daniel Saver, an assistant director with the Association of Bay Area Governments, a regional agency that helps set local housing goals.
Every eight years since 1969, California has required cities and counties to submit detailed plans for how they would accommodate a specific number of homes across a range of affordability levels. But during recent housing cycles, most local governments haven't come close to hitting their low- and middle-income homebuilding targets. Meanwhile, median housing costs exploded, stoked by the region's rapidly growing economy and a flood of high-paying jobs.
To reverse that trend, state officials and advocates have made clear they intend to hold cities and counties accountable for their new homebuilding goals. And local governments are already feeling the repercussions.
Here's what's behind the push to add more homes in the Bay Area, and why officials and experts believe it's necessary to follow through on that effort.
HOW DID THE STATE COME UP WITH THE NEW HOMEBUILDING TARGETS?
Ahead of the current housing cycle, which started Feb. 1, state lawmakers phased in new legislation that drastically increased the number of homes most local governments are required to prepare for in housing plans dubbed “housing elements.”
The increases were needed to account for the number of people living in overcrowded homes, which experts agree has been exacerbated by a severe shortage of affordably priced housing in the Bay Area and across the state.
As a result, the Bay Area's 441,000 target is double that of the previous eight-year housing cycle. The bulk of the new homes are set for the region's largest urban centers near jobs and transportation — including in San Jose, Oakland and San Francisco. But suburban and rural areas also must work to plan for more homes.
WHAT HAPPENS IF CITIES AND COUNTIES FAIL TO PLAN FOR ENOUGH HOMES?
The state has launched new housing enforcement teams, and is threatening fines, withholding affordable housing funding and the loss of permitting authority for local governments that skirt their housing responsibilities.
Pro-housing advocates have also sued 11 local cities and Santa Clara County for failing to submit adopted housing element plans to the state by a Jan. 31 deadline. One of the goals of the lawsuits is to ensure those jurisdictions are subject to the socalled “builder's remedy,” a provision in state housing law that could enable developers to push through projects of virtually any size in areas without a finalized housing plan.
As of Feb. 14, just 38 of the region's 109 cities and counties had submitted adopted plans. And only four of those plans — from San Francisco, Emeryville, San Leandro and the city of Alameda — had received final approval from the state.
WHAT ABOUT STRAINS ON WATER INFRASTRUCTURE,
TRAFFIC AND WILDFIRE RISK?
Housing officials and experts say that by focusing housing in areas with existing water infrastructure, they can manage concerns about sewer capacity and drought. But the region must also bolster water conservation technology in homes while finding sustainable ways to increase supply.
As for traffic, plans to build housing near transportation hubs should reduce congestion, as well as greenhouse emissions, officials and experts say. And prioritizing denser housing in city centers means less sprawl into high-firerisk areas. But with Bay Area cities among the slowest to recover from the pandemic anywhere in the country, concerns remain about how many people will want to move to urban areas.
ISN'T THE BAY AREA'S POPULATION SHRINKING? DO WE REALLY NEED MORE HOMES?
Experts say the fact that the Bay Area's population shrunk by around 2.5% between 2020 and 2021 could actually be evidence the region should be building more housing, not less. They argue that the high cost of housing is among the main reasons people are picking up and leaving. And the best way to bring down costs? Add more homes for people of all incomes.
HOW MANY HOMES DID THE BAY AREA BUILD IN THE LAST HOUSING CYCLE?
Between 2015 and 2023, the Bay Area permitted about 190,000 units, according to state housing data. While the region soared past its goal for residents with “abovemoderate” incomes, it approved just 44,000 homes for low- or middle-income residents, well under half the combined target for those groups.
HOW CAN THE BAY AREA MAKE SURE IT MEETS ITS HOUSING TARGETS?
Experts and advocates have long maintained cities must reform the often years-long planning and approval process for new homes, which can add crushing costs to new affordable and market-rate housing. They also want to see local zoning rules relaxed to allow denser homes in more areas.
And to boost chronically underfunded affordable housing? Advocates and officials are working toward bringing an unprecedented Bay Area affordable housing bond worth up to $20 billion before voters in 2024.