What a trip down the Rio Grande might look like this season
As the weather warms, snow at higher elevations begins to melt, causing the rivers of Northern New Mexico to rise. Although the Rio Grande flows deep-green, wide and placid for much of its length, the melting snow adds to its turbulence as it passes over black-boulder rapids and is joined by other rivers, like the Rio Pueblo, just north of the Taos Junction Bridge.
In these wilder sections, the boulders throw up spray and the river roars as it deepens and gathers energy. These areas of the Rio Grande are where rafters and kayakers begin to return this month as winter transitions into spring, although the river adventure season is arriving more gradually this year than last.
Even with recent precipitation, the river is rising slowly, flowing at about 570 cubic feet per second near the Taos Junction Bridge at the beginning of this week. The river is just a bit lower than it was last year at this time and is also below the 97-year median.
Spring and summer river predictions
The mountains that feed the Rio Grande currently have average snowpack, according to the National Water and Climate Center, but spring snowstorms in Northern New Mexico aren’t uncommon and can change the outlook for water flows in spring and summer.
Cisco Guevara is the founder of rafting company Los Rios River Runners and a local storyteller. He recently spoke to me by phone from the Rio Grande, where he is providing support for the filming of the third season of AMC’s “Dark Winds,” a show based on a series of novels written by late New Mexico author Tony Hillerman.
“Snowpack can change dramatically,” Guevara said. “It is hovering around average — a little bit above right now. One factor is how long the temperature stays below freezing at elevations above 10,000 feet.
“Having said that,” he added, “it’s worth noting that the average has changed over the last 20 years. Back in my heyday, in the ‘70s to ‘90s, the Taos Box routinely ran above 3,000 CFS (cubic feet per second) in the spring.”
Cubic feet per second is a unit of measurement used to gauge the volume of water flowing in a river at a given point in time. Guevara says he is expecting a mellower flow than last year, when the river rose to 4,810 CFS in May and three people lost their lives on the river.
River companies are running the Racecourse section of the river now, beginning near Pilar. Typically, the best times for the more challenging rapids of the Taos Box further upriver are between April and late June, although the dates can vary from year to year, according to Guevara. “Most guides won’t do the Box unless it is above 650 CFS,” explained Guevara.
Matt Gontram at New Mexico River Adventures reported they’ve been open since March 10 and have been busy during spring break. He said the river usually hovers around 550 CFS through the early spring. Although there might be a drop in April as irrigation begins, he added, the river usually begins to rise and reaches its peak in late May or early June. “We’ll have a great season no matter what. It’s never too low to run the river,” Gontram said. “It’s amazing that we have such an extended season. We expect to raft into mid-October.”
Spring precipitation predictions
When state climatologist Dr. Dave Dubois looks at predictions for river levels, he begins his investigation at the headwaters of the Rio Grande in the San Juan Mountains of Colorado.
“The current snowpack at the headwaters is at about 100 percent,” Dubois said. “But it just popped over from 80 percent, where it was earlier in the season.”
What happens next depends on how quickly the weather warms up, he explained. Although it is still cool at higher elevations, it has been fairly warm over the region this winter. Snow can also evaporate or infiltrate into the ground as it melts, rather than draining into the rivers.
Right now, his weather prediction tools from the Climate Prediction Center tell him there is an equal chance for our usual amount of precipitation in the late spring to early summer, although southern New Mexico may be drier than usual. Looking at weather patterns, Dubois said that there may be a switch from our current El Niño to a La Niña pattern, although these patterns typically have more of an impact on winter weather.
Dubois pointed out that the closer we get to mid-June through early fall, the typical monsoon season in New Mexico, the more accurate the predictions will be, although current maps are showing that the eastern part of the state may be drier and warmer than usual.
“The National Interagency Fire Center issued its last significant wildland fire weather prediction on March 1 for the period through June,” Dubois said. “There is potential for above normal fire conditions for eastern New Mexico in March and going into April. In May, that potential switches to southern New Mexico and into west Texas. In June, as we go into monsoon season, only west Texas is showing above-average fire potential.”
We’d had three La Niña seasons in a row before the current El Niño pattern. When asked about why we didn’t see our usual pattern of July monsoons last year, Dubois said, “Last year the atmosphere was in transition, it was kind of a mess in terms of the forecast models. Summer
is hard to forecast. We used to look at past years for similar weather patterns, but the oceans are warmer than they used to be and the oceans change the location of the jet stream.”
Impacts of climate change on the river
Although it is becoming more difficult to predict the weather due to climate change, one trend is clear: Temperatures are rising.
Last summer reached record highs, with July 2023 being the hottest in 129 years in New Mexico. “There were two days in Las Cruces, where I live, that reached 109 degrees last summer, and unofficial sites nearby showed temperatures above 110,” Dubois said.
Many factors impact stream flow, including temperature and precipitation.
“Climate change will have impacts on the flow of the Rio Grande,” Dubois explained. “Climate change has a fingerprint on almost every long-term weather pattern. If our temperatures are 0.5 to 2 degrees warmer than usual, that has a big impact to soil temperatures. The snow can melt faster.”
Dust storms can also impact snowmelt in lowland areas by blowing snow at higher elevations and causing them to have a darker surface. As a result, snowpack warms more quickly and melts weeks earlier, Dubois added.
Guevara agrees that climate change has an impact on the river.
“We are going to be seeing more rain and less snow in the late winter,” he said. “That will move up the start of the season to earlier. We want to catch the water when we can, so March will continue to be the start of the season in years to come.”
Safety
As rafting season begins, Guevara said, “It’s a wonderful thing to have some of the finest rivers in the world here in Northern New Mexico. That’s why the river has been protected since 1968 with a Wild and Scenic designation. It’s special and beautiful. Get outside — enjoy and respect the river.”
Reflecting on the high water seen last year and the three people who lost their lives, Guevara said, “Everyone needs to wear a lifejacket, whether they are on an innertube or a raft or other floating device. That’s the state law and also good common sense. Don’t float alone.”
Cindy Brown has been a freelance writer and columnist for the Taos News for the last 13 years. She writes about the outdoors, health, gardening, culture, community, and home. She is the author of “Taos Hiking Guide,” available locally and from Nighthawk Press nighthawkpress.com. Contact her at cindy@taoshiking.com.