The Times Herald (Norristown, PA)

Sanctions

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doing business with Iran or risk U.S. fines or other punishment.

U.S. sanctions bar U.S. banks and companies from doing business with Iran. The sanctions also limit foreign companies from dealing with Iran by prohibitin­g them from using American banks in their operations if they do not sever links with Iran.

Aircraft manufactur­ers stand to be big losers, with the pain shared between Chicago-based Boeing and Europe’s Airbus. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the companies’ existing licenses to sell planes to Iran would be invalidate­d. Airbus falls under U.S. rules because its planes include U.S.-made components.

Airbus has already delivered three planes out of a 100-jet order placed in December 2016 by Iran’s national carrier, Iran Air. The planes are worth around $19 billion at list prices.

Boeing later announced deals with Iran Air and Aseman Airlines totaling 110 planes said to be worth $20 billion. However, list prices are routinely exaggerate­d, and aviation consultanc­y Avitas valued the deals at $9.5 billion, given normal discounts.

The aircraft makers will avoid serious damage. The Iranian deals represente­d a blip in Boeing’s business. Boeing never added the planes to its backlog — and if it had, they would have represente­d less than 2 percent of its 5,800 orders.

Boeing prepared investors for the setback. CEO Dennis Muilenburg said last month that losing the Iranian sales wouldn’t slow down production.

“Airbus booked the orders and started delivering planes. Boeing played it safe and did neither, which may have been smart,” said Richard Aboulafia, an analyst with airline-industry consultant Teal Group near Washington, D.C. He also said that Iran’s demand for new planes was vastly overrated all along.

In the long term, however, “Iran is the big hope of aviation manufactur­ers” because of its large population — about 80 million — and middle class, its oil assets, and an aging aircraft fleet in need of upgrades, said Adam Pilarski, an Avitas analyst.

The U.S. says the sanctions will also sharply curtail sales of oil by Iran, the world’s fifth-largest oil producer. There will be a 180day period for countries to wrap up existing contracts and achieve “significan­t reductions” in their purchases of Iranian crude, although Mnuchin did not spell out what the administra­tion meant by the term.

The price of oil rose sharply on Wednesday to its highest since 2014 on expectatio­ns that the new sanctions will crimp Iranian exports.

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