Weston

in a medium-cost area, is at medium risk for health care costs (she either smokes or has a chronic medical condition or two) and buys supplemental Plan F, the most popular Medigap policy. Eighty percent of those in similar situations would face costs in the range of $4,900 to $6,000.

The models also include worst-case scenarios. If her health deteriorated to the high-risk category, her costs could exceed $11,000. If she opted to do without a Medigap policy and had a bad year, she could pay over $21,800.

LONG-TERM CARE IS STILL A WILD CARD

Retirement planning involves a lot of educated guesses. How long you’ll live, inflation rates, returns on your investments, your expenses — these may not end up being what you expected. Financial planners typically craft their assumptions about what’s most likely to happen and may suggest insurance or contingency plans to cover the worst-case scenarios.

Long-term care costs remain the big wild card. Half of people over 65 don’t incur any long-term care costs, Young says, and a quarter incur less than $100,000.

“The problem is, 15% are going to spend a quarter of a million or more,” Young says.

Those who exhaust their savings may end up on Medicaid, the government program for the indigent that pays for long-term care (Medicare does not). People who have a few million dollars saved may opt to “self-fund,” or pay for it without help. Those in between might consider some kind of long-term care insurance, or earmark assets they can tap if necessary, Young says. That could be your home equity or investments that give you income while you’re healthy but could be sold to pay for long-term care. The key is to not use up those resources for other costs. Holding something in reserve is particularly important for women, who are twice as likely to require paid care.

“We live longer; we tend to care for our husbands,” Young says. “The risk is higher for women.” This column was provided to The Associated Press by the personal finance website NerdWallet. Liz Weston is a columnist at NerdWallet, a certified financial planner and author of “Your Credit Score.” Email: lweston@ nerdwallet.com. Twitter: @lizweston.