If Obama loses...
What if it’s a photo-finish election and Mitt Romney ekes out a victory by a minuscule margin? Then brace yourself for some ugliness. If Romney should win, the cause of domestic peace and tranquility would best be served by a comfortable Romney margin. But that doesn’t appear to be in the cards. A razor-thin margin, though, might be. Polls of the national popular vote show the race a statistical tie. Polls of crucial electoral-vote states like Ohio and Florida show President Obama leading with more breathing room.
Suppose, though, that the battle-ground state polls are off a bit, as some knowledgeable people say they are because these polls are based on 2008 turnout models that favor Obama. Susquehanna Polling and Research, for example, says that with just minor tweaking to reflect the 2012 turnout more realistically, Pennsylvania goes from a double-digit Obama lead to a statistical tossup. Of course, this could reflect partisan wishful thinking.
But suppose the critics (or nitpickers, if you insist) are right. Plus, suppose the past trend holds true and late-deciding voters break in favor of the challenger. The result could be an unanticipated Romney squeaker — a squeaker likley greeted with tumult and turmoil in Democratic strongholds such as, um, ahem, certain cities.
Owing to negative coverage of Romney’s campaign and fawning coverage of Obama’s, Obama backers have been prepped to anticipate a victory for their guy. Any outcome otherwise — and especially a close one — almost certainly would provoke an angry “We wuz robbed!” outcry from the Obama base. In such an event, it takes no fortune-telling powers to foresee partisan grievances and a media-fanned furor over how GOP-pushed voter-ID laws suppressed the minority vote. Also easily foretold would be bitter replays of the myth of how George W. Bush “stole the election in Florida.”
So pray for an Obama victory by any margin. Or for a Romney victory, if there must be one, by a safe margin. In the event of a close Romney win, well, batten down the hatches.