BLUE SHIFT
Democrats pick up House, Republicans retain Senate; Democrats maintain in local and state races >>
Here’s my fearless prediction for 2019: President Donald Trump’s approval rating goes over 50 percent in the ABC News/ Washington Post poll. He’s currently at 40 percent over there.
Why do I believe this? Because Trump will prove to be cagier - and the kinda-sorta left will prove to be more gullible - than we currently think.
Listen: I’ve spent a good chunk of the last two years wondering how people I like, love, and/or respect can continue their support for Trump.
I understand if you agree with his political positions - heck, I agree with some of ‘em - but his anti-intellectualism, his “media is the enemy” stance, his “many sides” take when it comes to racial violence … the list goes on and on and on. There has just been a cascade of his dumb, stupid, inflammatory, and/ or false statements over the last two years. It’s too much. It’s a bridge too far.
But …
But I often find myself wondering if Trump believes anything he says. I don’t think he does, at least not with his heart. Sure, maybe he’s your garden variety casual racist, and yeah, he probably gets aggravated at the media, and yep, he’s obviously not the smartest guy in the room. But he has proven, throughout his entire life, that he knows how to get people talking about him. He is a master of public relations. It’s an innate skill of his.
And so to get elected, he made ridiculous statements. He said terrible things. And enough people - about 25 percent of people eligible to vote - went for it. And for the last two years, he’s had free reign. A Republican congress that, instead of fighting Trump and his base, leaned into it and gave him control of the party and the country. I imagine Trump’s ego swelled to dangerous proportions.
Well, now the party, along with Trump, is screwed, as Democrats have taken control of the House. All of a sudden, Trump doesn’t have full control anymore. All of a sudden, the House is going to seek to stymie him at every turn.
So what’s Trump to do? Double down on his present rhetoric?
No chance. No chance at all. In fact, he’s already sent out the trial balloon.
On Monday, he was asked by Scott Thuman, a reporter for D.C.’s ABC affiliate, if there was anything he’d do over as president. His answer?
“Well, there would be certain things,” Trump said. “I’m not sure I’d want to reveal all of them. But I would say tone. I would like to have a much softer tone. I feel to a certain extent I have no choice. But maybe I do and maybe I could have been softer from that standpoint.”
I give it six months before Trump sits down to an interview with The New York Times in which he comes off as measured. I give it six months before he disavows, loudly and strongly, any and all white supremacist-types that have pledged their support. I give it six months before he’s back to joking with the media. I give it six months before he’s standing next to Nancy Pelosi talking about trillion dollar infrastructure projects, six months until we start hearing about college loan reforms, six months until immigration moves to the backburner.
I give it six months before some moderates start taking a softer stance on Trump.
In short: I give it six months for Trump to do whatever it takes to play nice with his new friends in the sandbox. He’ll lose some support among the hard-core crazies, but he’ll make it up with moderatetypes who will see a kinder, gentler, Donald.
And that version of Trump won’t be any more real than the current version, but it’ll be enough fool another whole batch of people most of the time.
Trump wants to stay in power. Of that I have no delusions. And he now knows, after this midterm election, that his current techniques have swung the balance of power back toward the Democrats. He also almost certainly knows he’d have zero chance in 2020 unless he changes the narrative.
And he will seek to do just that. Will he succeed? Well, ask yourself this: How gullible are the American people? (That’s a rhetorical.)