DON’T COUNT ON STABILITY
In the four-year history of the College Football Playoff, the four teams at the top of the rankings after three weeks have never all made it to the semifinals. As much as it might feel as if the field is well set, it would be best to expect an unexpected result or two over the next three weeks.
Three not-so-outlandish upsets that could create confusion for the selection committee: 1. ALABAMA LOSES THE SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME TO GEORGIA >> This could lead to the most controversial call in CFP history. The Crimson Tide is the defending national champ and Tua Tagovailoa and Co. have been stomping everyone. The Tide is not losing this week to The Citadel. The chances are slim Auburn beats ’Bama at home. But even if that happens, Alabama could quickly redeem itself by beating Georgia to win the SEC. A 12-1 SEC champion Alabama is not getting left out of the playoff, nor should it.
But 12-1 without an SEC title? The committee has already twice sent teams that did not reach their conference title games to the playoff.
In Ohio State’s case, the body-of-work argument was strong enough to overcome being bumped from the Big Ten title chase by Penn State, a team the Buckeyes had lost to in a close game at Happy Valley. Last year, Alabama seemed like a default pick at 11-1 over Ohio State and USC. Both were 11-2 with conference
titles, but ugly losses on their ledgers.
Could the committee squeeze in the Tide after a loss to Georgia, which would obviously get in, if Clemson, Notre Dame and Michigan (and maybe even Oklahoma) all won out? It’s not as if Alabama would have a loaded resume, with victories against LSU, Mississippi State and Auburn. But there is also little doubt Alabama would be favored on a neutral field against any team in the country.
The committee has to be rooting for the Tide to keep it out of this mess.
2. OHIO STATE BEATS MICHIGAN AND WINS THE BIG TEN >> Big 12 fans will disagree, but Michigan at 12-1 looks like a good bet to sail into the playoff — especially if Notre Dame finishes unbeaten, therefore making the Wolverines’ only loss a one-score game in the opener at South Bend. The Buckeyes have nice road victories against Penn State and Michigan State. Add Michigan and Northwestern in the Big Ten championship game, and suddenly a season of struggles in Columbus, Ohio, won’t look so bad. The stain of that blowout loss at Purdue won’t come off easy, though, and choosing between Ohio State at 12-1 and Oklahoma at 12-1 or West Virginia at 11-1 or Washington State at 12-1 won’t be such an easy chore.
3. NOTRE DAME LOSES, ESPECIALLY TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA >> Any loss for the Irish looks problematic if the rest of the contenders win out. Michigan could help Notre Dame by finishing 12-1. The Irish could make the case the committee can’t put the Wolverines in and leave out the one team that beat them. Don’t let anyone tell you the Irish are out with one loss. That’s shortsighted and doesn’t take into account that Big 12 contenders Oklahoma and West Virginia and Washington State could easily pick up a second loss before they even reach their conference title games.