Edelstein: Math for Yaede upset is Trump + AOC = Henderson
If Donald Trump and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had a baby, it would be named “David Henderson” and he would be running for mayor of Hamilton Township.
How’s that for a visual?
But yes, this is going to be a fun few months leading up to the June 4 primary, where Henderson, the raucous rabble-rouser, is taking on incumbent Kelly Yaede in what promises to be a old-fashioned, mud-slinging, down and dirty affair.
It might even get a few dozen people to the polls. Remember: This is a primary election in a year where there’s nothing else going on. There will only be two types of Republicans coming out to vote: Hard core party loyalists who see it as their duty to cast a vote, and people who have (or will develop) a strong hatred for either Yaede or Henderson. Issues, schmissues.
As I said, it should be entertaining. And in a low turnout election, well, anything can happen.
“Lower turnout elections always magnify the ability of a small organized group to make a difference in the outcome, and a June primary is no different,” said Ben Dworkin, the director of Rowan University’s Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship.
Point, Henderson.
“But the groups that tend to be most organized are the official party organizations,” Dworkin said.
Point, Yaede.
All right. We all know what Yaede brings to the table, all the pros and cons that come with being in charge for nearly seven years. She’s had successes, failures, and a few controversies. I’m guessing there are precious few primary voters who are going to be swayed to her side if they aren’t already there. Her main focus will be holding on to all the support she’s shown in the general elections through the years.
As for Henderson? Well, he should hope he actually is the spawn of an unholy Trump-AOC coupling, because that’s his best and only path to pulling an upset.
He should be like Trump because being a loudmouth during primary season (and all the time) worked well enough for the current commander-in-chief. Henderson, at times, makes Trump look like a wallflower.
And he should be like AOC, because in order to pull a primary upset, Henderson will have to take a page out of her book in an effort to draw people to the polls. Ocasio-Cortez managed to upend Joe Crowley as a result of being able to get massive support via social media, word-of-mouth, and plenty of on-the-ground organization.
“Ocasio-Cortez was really organized and Joe Crowley was not,” Dworkin said. “His organization was not nearly in the fighting shape it needed to be. Ocasio-Cortez and her supporters were.”
So the big question, of course, is can Henderson actually win? Is a huge upset in the making?
“Yes, you see upsets in primaries, they happen every year, but organization matters. The party backed candidate usually comes out on top,” Dworkin said. “One of the benefits of party backing is you get the line, the preferred ballot position in a primary. The marginal Republican, in this case, who walks into the voting booth because they’re a good Republican and it’s an election is simply more likely to vote for the party line candidate. It would be wonderful if all voters were highinformation voters and knew all of the personalities and issues up and down the ballot, but the fact is most don’t.”
Basically, the party-backed candidate usually wins. But sometimes, upsets happen. Sometimes, the Trumps and AOCs of the world rise up.
Henderson has a strong social media game, and will undoubtedly lean on that as the election draws near. He’s also going to try and ride (and further stoke) the antiYaede contingent in the township.
Yaede will either have to play defense, or simply treat Henderson like an annoying fly. Neither option is politically pleasant for an incumbent.
Grab your popcorn. This one is going to be a hoot.