Time is near to pull the plug on COVID-19 restrictions

And now, an open letter to Gov. Phil Murphy …

Dear Phil: OK man, here’s the deal: You need to sit down in front of your microphone and tell New Jerseyans that as of April 1, all coronavirus-related restrictions are going to be lifted.

That’s right. All of them.

Why? Because the math tracks. Data determines decisions, right? Well, the data is speaking loud and clear, as the number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths have been falling. As to the “why?” of that? Welp, between people who have already had the coronavirus and people who are getting the vaccine, the pandemic portion of the program appears to be coming to a close. To date, over 1.3 million New Jerseyans have received at least their first dose, another 700,000 or so are fully vaccinated. On top of that, over 700,000 coronavirus cases have been confirmed in the state, and based on science’s best guesses, the number of people who have had it is probably triple that, closer to two million.

After a rocky vaccine rollout, you listened to reason and opened up the queue. Smokers before teachers? Whatever. At least you were getting the shots into people’s arms. Looks like we’re averaging over 60,000 shots a weekday (why are weekends lagging?) And add the Johnson & Johnson vax to the rolls, and conservatively, we’re looking at close to another two million shots this month.

That means by April 1, about two million New Jerseyans will have had the virus, another 2.5 million will have had their first shot, and about 1.5 million will be fully vaccinated. Of course there’s overlap here between supposed cases and people who got the vaccines, but there’s also only about 7 million adult residents. And if polls are to be believed, only about 5 million or so are planning to listen to science and reason and get the shot. Add it all up, and the numbers are clear: By April 1, between natural immunity and the vaccine, we’re going to be damn close to the finish line.

Yeah, about that “finish line”: COVID-19 isn’t going away, especially because of the people who are not going to get the vaccine. Of course, it would be a lot better if they did, but they’re not, and so that’s that. It will continue to circulate, people without immunity will get it, hopefully the virus won’t mutate and start hitting kids harder. But there is nothing to be done about this. You can’t - and shouldn’t - try and force people into getting the vaccine, even though they 100 percent should. So the goal now should be clear: Get the vaccine out to people who want it as quickly as humanly possible, and go to sleep at night knowing you did your best.

So the data, as we have it today, is clear. Within a month, there is going to be a good chunk of the population who is either immune, vaccinated, both, or couldn’t care less.

So what’s left to do? Quite frankly, nothing. That’s why you should get behind that microphone and announce that April 1 is the day. It’s the day limits on outdoor gatherings are completely lifted - I mean, right now, 150 people can go to an indoor funeral, but only 25 people can gather outdoors? That’s silly. Again: Enough people will have immunity or will have been vaccinated to allow restaurants and everything else to open up. If not now, when? Again, and I’m going to all-cap this: WE ARE NOT GETTING RID OF COVID-19. It will be endemic, not a pandemic, and thus the emergency is over. Remember - the whole point in the beginning was to make sure we weren’t going to overwhelm the healthcare system. By April 1, it’s going to be clear we are not going to overrun the healthcare system. Keeping things closed, keeping limits on things, is not going to do anything anymore. It’s over.

Make the announcement now. Simply say that based on the current trajectory, April 1 is the day. Subject to change of course, as who knows what about this thing, but the path is clear right now. Plus, April 1 is a nice fit as well, as that marks Major League Baseball’s opening day. Spring in the air, crack of the bat, and New Jerseyans finally crawling out of the last year and into the sunlight.

Listen: I’ve been the biggest Chicken Little on this thing since Day 1. I advocated to close things down weeks before you closed things down. I am not coming at this lightly.

The time has come. There is no reason to go piecemeal, no reason for half-measures. Sure, some people won’t be ready, yes, there will still be more vaccines to be given out, but my numbers up there are conservative, and it shows that about 80 percent of New Jerseyans who want a shot will have gotten at least their first shot - which is, by itself, highly effective and between that and immunity (and, sadly, the two million or so New Jerseyans who won’t get the vaccine) there will be no reason to continue with lockdowns or restrictions of any stripe.

April 1 needs to be the day life begins it’s return to normalcy. I’d even settle for April 15 if need be. But again: The math is clear, the data is clear.