Election seen as referendum on divisive Netanyahu
JERUSALEM >> Israelis on Monday were scheduled to vote the next day in their fourth parliamentary election in just two years. Once again, the race boils down to a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for the past 12 years, hopes voters will reward him for leading the country’s successful coronavirus vaccine rollout and his diplomatic outreach to the Arab world. His challengers have highlighted his earlier missteps in combating the virus, his ongoing corruption trial, and his reliance on divisive religious and ultranationalist allies.
Over the years, Netanyahu has developed the reputation as the political magician and master manipulator capable of surviving any crisis. With witnesses set to take the stand against him next month, Netanyahu is hoping for another miracle that could deliver a friendlier parliament willing to grant him immunity or freeze his trial. Opponents portray him as a serial liar who has caused two years of political paralysis by putting his political survival and legal troubles ahead of the country’s interests.
Opinion polls forecast an extremely tight race, raising the possibility of continued deadlock and even an unprecedented fifth consecutive election. Netanyahu appears to hold a slight advantage because of the intricacies of Israel’s political system.
In Israel, people vote for parties, not individual candidates. Netanyahu’s Likud is again poised to emerge as the largest individual party. But since no party has ever won a 61-seat parliamentary majority on its own, political alliances must be formed to form a governing coalition. If the opinion polls prove accurate, Netanyahu would have a clearer path to building a government than the array of rivals that have little in common beyond their animosity toward him.
Here is a look at the key factors that could determine whether Netanyahu or any of his challengers can clinch that elusive 61seat majority.
‘Vaccine Nation’
Netanyahu has staked his reelection hopes on the success of Israel’s successful vaccination campaign. Netanyahu last December moved quickly and aggressively, personally lobbying the CEOs of Pfizer and Moderna to secure enough vaccines for Israel’s 9.3 million people.
In under three months, Israel has vaccinated some 80% of its adult population.
With infection rates plunging, that has allowed the country to reopen schools, restaurants, museums and the main airport just in time for election day. Netanyahu is fond of saying that Israel, which long billed itself as the “Start-up Nation” because of its high-tech sector, has become the “Vaccine Nation.”
Opponents have accused Netanyahu of bungling the management of the pandemic over the past year. A series of lockdowns hit the economy hard, thousands of businesses failed and unemployment remains in double digits. Many also have bitter memories of Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox allies flouting lockdown rules and point to the country’s more than 6,000 COVID-19 deaths.
With the economy coming back to life, Netanyahu is hoping the growing sense of normalcy will make voters forget the difficulties of the past year. This may explain that while polls show a majority of Israelis want
Netanyahu replaced, he also is seen as best-suited to be prime minister.
“In people’s minds, first and foremost when you go into an election, is the identity of the prime minister,” said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute. “In many ways, this works in Netanyahu’s favor because it’s unclear who the opponent is.”
Stay or go?
Opinion polls have indicated that some 15% of voters remained undecided. The election will hinge not only on whom these voters support, but whether they choose to vote at all.
Analysts expect turnout to be lower than the 71% level of the most recent election a year ago, in part because of continued concerns about the coronavirus, along with general voter fatigue. Israel is providing special accommodations, including separate booths and mobile ballot stations, to allow people who are sick or in quarantine
to vote.
But more important than overall turnout will be voter participation in key sectors. Netanyahu’s religious and nationalist allies tend to have highly motivated voters. Arab voters, disappointed with the disintegration of the Arab “Joint List” bloc, are expected to stay home in larger numbers this time. Voters in the more liberal and secular areas around Tel Aviv also tend to have lower rates of participation. Netanyahu could benefit if these trends materialize.
On the edges
This election could hinge on the showing of a few small parties. In order to enter the Knesset, or parliament, a party must receive at least 3.25% of the vote, giving it a minimum of four seats in the 120-seat body.
Pollster Camil Fuchs said four small parties are hovering near the threshold. Of these, the dovish Meretz party and the centrist Blue and White are “much more in danger” of not getting enough support, according to recent polls, he said. Both are opposed to Netanyahu.
The Religious Zionist party, the small pro-Netanyahu faction that includes openly racist and homophobic candidates, appears to be gaining strength. If one of the anti-Netanyahu parties fails to get in, a strong showing by the Religious Zionists put Netanyahu over the top.
The kingmakers
Despite the tight race, neither Netanyahu and his religious and hardline allies, nor the anti-Netanyahu bloc, led by Yair Lapid’s centrist Yesh Atid party, are expected to capture a majority of seats on their own.
That sets the stage for former Netanyahu aide Naftali Bennett to emerge as the decisive voice in coalition building. Bennett’s Yamina party supports the same hard-line ideology as the Likud. But the two men have a notoriously strained relationship, and Bennett has refused to commit to either side.
Given their similar world views, Bennett, who has served as Netanyahu’s education and defense minister, appears to be better suited to join Netanyahu than the anti-Netanyahu bloc, which ranges from dovish Arab parties to former Netanyahu allies who have had bitter personal breakups with him. Still, if offered the chance to be prime minister, Bennett could side with Netanyahu’s opponents.
Some polls have forecast both sides falling short of a coalition, even with Bennett’s support. That could create the unlikely scenario of a small Islamic party led by Arab lawmaker Mansour Abbas as kingmaker, or simply forcing a fifth election.