World must work to avoid doomsday
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved up the doomsday threat last week.
The group — founded in part by scientists who helped develop the first nuclear weapon, in the belief that they “could not remain aloof to the consequences of their work” — moved its iconic “Doomsday Clock” to 90 seconds to midnight, the closest it’s been to the doomsday hour ever.
For two years, the clock had been set at 100 seconds to midnight. Moving it even closer, according to a statement by the group, is due “largely but not exclusively to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the increased risk of nuclear escalation.”
The nuclear saber-rattling by Russian President Vladimir Putin and the invasion have strained the international system designed to preserve order — and avoid doomsday.
“Russia’s war on Ukraine has raised profound questions about how states interact, eroding norms of international conduct that underpin successful responses to a variety of global risks,” the group said.
That includes Putin’s thinly veiled threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Elsewhere, fellow despots menace the region and beyond. Iran is getting technologically closer to proliferation, and China is expanding its arsenal. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has promised an exponential increase in nuclear weapons. Seemingly more stable states like Pakistan and India are also expanding and modernizing their nuclear capacity.
Alarmingly, the Bulletin group said, the geopolitical superpowers of the U.S., Russia and China “are now pursuing full-fledged nuclear weapons modernization programs, setting the table for a dangerous new ‘third nuclear age.’ Long-standing concerns about arms racing in South Asia and missile arms races in Northeast Asia complete a dismal picture that needs to be addressed.”
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists also recognizes threats from the climate crisis, biothreats that make events like the COVID pandemic “no longer … considered rare, once-a-century occurrences,” as well as disinformation and disruptive technology that could provoke armed conflict between and within nation-states.
These and other transnational threats can ideally be addressed through international institutions or direct bilateral diplomacy.
“The broader nuclear-nonproliferation regime is still absolutely critical to the broader nuclear landscape and persuading countries that they don’t want to, or that they shouldn’t try, to acquire nuclear weapons,” said Mark Bell, a University of Minnesota professor who specializes in nuclear-weapons issues.
At other times, Bell added, a more direct capital-to-capital strategy is key, like one between New Delhi and Islamabad or between Beijing, Washington and Taipei.
Diplomacy, however, won’t be enhanced by Western capitulation to Russia’s illegal, immoral invasion of Ukraine. Rewarding aggression would only incentivize more of it. That should resonate as allies try to align differences on how best to help Ukraine defend itself.
Notably, Steve Fetter of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists said supplying tanks is a way to restore the international order, imperative to avoiding doomsday.
“The U.S. and Russia have a strong shared interest in avoiding nuclear war and in minimizing nuclear risks, and we should be able to pursue this shared interest despite the war in Ukraine, just as we did during the darkest days of the Cold War,” Fetter said.
“U.S. military assistance to Ukraine may complicate those efforts,” he said, adding: “I think it is essential for the long-term risks of nuclear war and nuclear proliferation that Ukraine is able to resist the invasion and repel Russian forces. And so we should do everything we can to support Ukraine in that.”
Indeed, allowing unchecked aggression would only make the world more dangerous and push the Doomsday Clock even closer to midnight. Instead, on Ukraine and other security threats, empowered international institutions backed by nations respecting the rule of law are more essential than ever to turn back the clock, however slightly, on the challenges facing an imperiled world.